million_runs
← The record
NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

49ers @ Falcons

Simulated 1,000,000 times

TeamTypicalReal
SF 49ers 27 20
ATL Falcons 20 29

✗ A miss. The 49ers won 72% of the runs, but the Falcons won the real game, ATL by 9. ATL won by that much or more in 9.8% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · SF by 7
Real · ATL by 9
← SF by 35+ 0 ATL by 35+ →
Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal
Brock Purdy SF
254 288
Michael Penix Jr. ATL
215 213

Rushing yards

0100 SimReal
Christian McCaffrey SF
56 39
Kaelon Black SF
32 63

Receiving yards

0200 SimReal
George Kittle SF
87 88
Kyle Juszczyk SF
16 11
Brandin Cooks SF
8 13
Luke Farrell SF
5 14
Drake London ATL
83 66
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL
35 22
Jahan Dotson ATL
33 6
Zachariah Branch ATL
14 9
Austin Hooper ATL
10 21

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. SF 27, ATL 20.

49ers
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Brock Purdy QB 24/33 · 2603 · 63
Christian McCaffrey RB 13 · 5710 · 1053
George Kittle TE 7 · 731
Kaelon Black RB 10 · 351 · 10
Jordan Watkins WR 1 · 32
Jake Brendel C 2 · 19
Kyle Juszczyk FB 2 · 14
Luke Farrell TE 1 · 7
Falcons
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Michael Penix Jr. QB 23/30 · 20018 · 591
Drake London WR 8 · 249 · 891
Jahan Dotson WR 3 · 37
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE 5 · 31
Zachariah Branch WR 3 · 20
Charlie Woerner TE 1 · 9
Jake Matthews OT 1 · 7
Chris Blair WR 1 · 7

What went in

  • Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
  • Out: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Kurtis Rourke, Deebo Samuel Sr. · Andy Dalton, Brian Robinson Jr., Jack Strand, Olamide Zaccheaus. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
  • 1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok