NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Bengals @ Ravens

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
CIN Bengals	24	35
BAL Ravens	23	13

CIN 50% of runs won 50% BAL

✓ The sim had it. The Bengals won 50% of the runs, and won the real game, CIN by 22.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · CIN by 1

Real · CIN by 22

← CIN by 35+ 0 BAL by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0350 SimReal

Joe Burrow CIN

251 292

Tyler Huntley BAL

221 298

Rushing yards

0200 SimReal

Chase Brown CIN

58 39

Samaje Perine CIN

20 16

Derrick Henry BAL

96 45

Justice Hill BAL

11 7

Receiving yards

0200 SimReal

Tee Higgins CIN

59 148

About 1.5% of runs went that high.

Ja'Marr Chase CIN

52 62

Mike Gesicki CIN

21 6

Dohnte Meyers CIN

21 0

Zay Flowers BAL

55 137

About 2.3% of runs went that high.

Mark Andrews BAL

42 23

Rashod Bateman BAL

25 33

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. CIN 24, BAL 23.

Bengals
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Joe Burrow QB	23/30 · 248	9 · 21		3
Chase Brown RB		13 · 64	4 · 41	1
Ja'Marr Chase WR			6 · 63	2
Tee Higgins WR			6 · 62
Samaje Perine RB		8 · 23	2 · 4
Erick All Jr. TE			1 · 26
Dohnte Meyers WR			2 · 23
Mike Gesicki TE			1 · 16
Drew Sample TE			1 · 13

Ravens
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Tyler Huntley QB	18/33 · 224	1 · -1		1
Derrick Henry RB		16 · 109	4 · 60	1
Zay Flowers WR		1 · 3	3 · 56
Justice Hill RB		3 · 8	2 · 29
Rashod Bateman WR			3 · 33
Mark Andrews TE			3 · 16	1
Matt Hibner TE			1 · 16
Ja'Kobi Lane WR			1 · 11
Josh Cuevas TE			1 · 3

What went in

Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
Out: none listed · Lamar Jackson, Elijah Sarratt. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok