Trail Blazers @ Lakers
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| POR Trail Blazers | 116 | 136 |
| LAL Lakers | 120 | 129 |
✗ A miss. The Lakers won 60% of the runs, but the Trail Blazers won the real game, POR by 7. POR won by that much or more in 27% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 10 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.
861 of 10,000 runs went that high.
329 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
767 of 10,000 runs went that high.
205 of 10,000 runs went that low.
886 of 10,000 runs went that high.
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. POR 116, LAL 120.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 17 | 5 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 |
| Deni Avdija | 24 | 5 | 1 | 8-19 | 2-7 |
| Toumani Camara | 9 | 8 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Jrue Holiday | 11 | 6 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-6 |
| Ja Morant | 16 | 3 | 4 | 5-14 | 0-5 |
| Donovan Clingan | 11 | 16 | 1 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Scoot Henderson | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
| Micah Potter | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-9 | 3-8 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 22 | 6 | 7 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Luka Doncic | 30 | 10 | 4 | 12-23 | 4-11 |
| Walker Kessler | 11 | 8 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Quentin Grimes | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Ziaire Williams | 15 | 5 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-6 |
| Jake LaRavia | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 12 | 8 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-5 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Collin Sexton | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Sharpe, Youngblood · Thiero. Henderson, Carlson (day-to-day) play.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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