NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Bruins @ Blues

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
BOS Bruins	2	1
STL Blues	4	4

BOS 47% of runs won 53% STL

✓ The sim had it. The Blues won 53% of the runs, and won the real game, STL by 3.

Wild card · 1 in 6 runs

Bruins by 3+

Didn’t hit. Real: STL by 3.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · STL by 2

Real · STL by 3

← BOS by 6+ 0 STL by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Bruins
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
David Pastrnak	40%	70%	0	0
Elias Lindholm	24%	53%	0	0
JJ Peterka	23%	45%	0	0
Pavel Zacha	21%	45%	0	0
Morgan Geekie	14%	52%	0	0
Hampus Lindholm	12%	29%	0	0
Mason Lohrei	12%	29%	0	0
Charlie McAvoy	10%	40%	0	0
Will Borgen	9%	21%	0	0
Nikita Zadorov	8%	29%	0	0
Connor Clifton	5%	11%	0	0
Jonathan Aspirot	3%	4%	–	–

Blues
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Mason McTavish	35%	55%	0	0
Jimmy Snuggerud	31%	44%	1	0
Dylan Holloway	27%	62%	0	1
Philip Broberg	24%	48%	1	2
Jake Neighbours	23%	43%	1	0
Connor McMichael	19%	50%	0	1
Pavel Buchnevich	18%	45%	0	0
Adam Jiricek	16%	24%	0	0
Robert Thomas	13%	48%	1	2
Colton Parayko	12%	37%	0	0
Justin Barron	11%	36%	0	1
Cam Fowler	11%	41%	0	0

The sim’s call

The Blues’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. BOS 2, STL 4. 3.9% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Bruins
Player	G	A	Shots
Elias Lindholm	1	0	4
Pavel Zacha	1	0	3
Hampus Lindholm	0	1	2
Nikita Zadorov	0	1	0
David Pastrnak	0	0	3
Casey Mittelstadt	0	0	3

Blues
Player	G	A	Shots
Dylan Holloway	1	2	5
Mason McTavish	1	0	5
Jimmy Snuggerud	1	0	3
Philip Broberg	1	0	2
Robert Thomas	0	1	2
Connor McMichael	0	1	2
Cam Fowler	0	1	0
Pavel Buchnevich	0	1	0
Jonatan Berggren	0	1	0
Justin Barron	0	1	0
Jake Neighbours	0	0	3

Goalies

Bruins
Player	Shots against	Saves
Jeremy Swayman	28	24

Blues
Player	Shots against	Saves
Joel Hofer	26	24

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Jeremy Swayman / Joel Hofer, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.