MLB Mon, Oct 26 · World Series · Game 3 Final

Brewers @ Rays

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
MIL Brewers	4	10
TB Rays	3	1

MIL 54% of runs won 46% TB

✓ The sim had it. The Brewers won 54% of the runs, and won the real game, MIL by 9.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · MIL by 1

Real · MIL by 9

← MIL by 15+ 0 TB by 15+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Hits

05 SimReal

Jackson Chourio MIL

1 4

17,600 of 1,000,000 runs went that high.

Jake Bauers MIL

1 0

Christian Yelich MIL

1 2

William Contreras MIL

1 3

71,690 of 1,000,000 runs went that high.

Brice Turang MIL

1 3

56,790 of 1,000,000 runs went that high.

Garrett Mitchell MIL

1 1

Cooper Pratt MIL

1 1

Sal Frelick MIL

1 1

David Hamilton MIL

1 1

Yandy Díaz TB

1 2

Jonathan Aranda TB

1 0

Chandler Simpson TB

1 0

Junior Caminero TB

1 0

Nick Fortes TB

1 0

Richie Palacios TB

1 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Jonny DeLuca TB

1 0

Victor Mesa Jr. TB

1 0

Ben Williamson TB

1 0

Strikeouts

09 SimReal

Robert Gasser MIL

4 3

Freddy Peralta TB

5 4

Innings pitched

08.1 SimReal

Robert Gasser MIL

5.0 6.0

Freddy Peralta TB

5.1 4.2

Line score

	2	3	4	5	6	9	R
TypicalMIL	2	0	0	0	2	0	4
TB	0	0	3	0	0	0	3
RealMIL	0	2	0	8	0	0	10
TB	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MIL 4, TB 3.

Batting

Brewers
Player	H-AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K
Jackson Chourio	1-3	0	0	0	2	1
Jake Bauers	1-5	0	0	0	0	2
Christian Yelich	0-5	0	0	0	0	2
William Contreras	1-3	2	0	0	1	0
Brice Turang	1-4	1	1	2	0	2
Garrett Mitchell	0-3	0	0	0	1	0
Cooper Pratt	1-4	1	0	1	0	1
Sal Frelick	3-4	0	0	1	0	1
David Hamilton	0-4	0	0	0	0	3

Rays
Player	H-AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K
Yandy Díaz	0-4	0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Aranda	1-4	0	0	0	0	2
Chandler Simpson	2-4	1	0	0	0	0
Junior Caminero	1-4	1	1	2	0	0
Nick Fortes	1-4	1	0	0	0	0
Richie Palacios	0-2	0	0	0	2	0
Jonny DeLuca	0-4	0	0	0	0	0
Victor Mesa Jr.	1-4	0	0	0	0	1
Ben Williamson	1-4	0	0	1	0	2

Starters

Brewers
Player	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Robert Gasser SP	5.0	5	3	2	4

Rays
Player	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Freddy Peralta SP	5.1	7	4	1	5

What went in

Each PA: batter × pitcher × league (log5), 2026 season + postseason, MLB Stats API.
Lineups as of Game 2. No steals, errors, park or platoon effects. Seed 2026.
Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok