MLB Tue, Oct 27 · World Series · Game 4 Final

Brewers @ Rays

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real · 12 inn.
MIL Brewers	3	3
TB Rays	4	4

MIL 49% of runs won 51% TB

✓ The sim had it. The Rays won 51% of the runs, and won the real game, TB by 1.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · TB by 1

Real · TB by 1

← MIL by 15+ 0 TB by 15+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Hits

05 SimReal

Jackson Chourio MIL

1 2

Jake Bauers MIL

1 0

Christian Yelich MIL

1 0

William Contreras MIL

1 0

Brice Turang MIL

1 0

Sal Frelick MIL

1 1

Cooper Pratt MIL

1 4

6,560 of 1,000,000 runs went that high.

Garrett Mitchell MIL

1 0

David Hamilton MIL

1 1

Yandy Díaz TB

1 1

Jonathan Aranda TB

1 0

Junior Caminero TB

1 1

Liam Hicks TB

1 2

Jonny DeLuca TB

1 1

Chandler Simpson TB

1 3

80,270 of 1,000,000 runs went that high.

Ryan Vilade TB

1 0

Richie Palacios TB

1 0

Taylor Walls TB

1 0

Strikeouts

09 SimReal

Dustin May MIL

5 3

Griffin Jax TB

5 6

Innings pitched

08.1 SimReal

Dustin May MIL

6.1 3.0

76,140 of 1,000,000 runs went that low.

Griffin Jax TB

5.1 4.0

Line score

	1	2	4	5	8	9	10	11	12	R
TypicalMIL	0	0	0	1	1	1				3
TB	1	0	1	2	0	x				4
RealMIL	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	3
TB	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	4

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MIL 3, TB 4.

Batting

Brewers
Player	H-AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K
Jackson Chourio	0-4	0	0	0	0	2
Jake Bauers	1-4	1	1	1	0	0
Christian Yelich	1-3	0	0	0	1	1
William Contreras	0-4	0	0	0	0	0
Brice Turang	0-3	1	0	0	1	0
Sal Frelick	0-3	1	0	0	1	1
Cooper Pratt	2-4	0	0	0	0	0
Garrett Mitchell	2-3	0	0	2	1	0
David Hamilton	0-4	0	0	0	0	3

Rays
Player	H-AB	R	HR	RBI	K
Yandy Díaz	2-4	1	0	0	0
Jonathan Aranda	2-4	2	1	2	0
Junior Caminero	2-4	0	0	0	0
Liam Hicks	2-4	1	0	1	0
Jonny DeLuca	0-4	0	0	0	1
Chandler Simpson	0-4	0	0	0	0
Ryan Vilade	1-3	0	0	1	1
Richie Palacios	1-3	0	0	0	0
Taylor Walls	0-3	0	0	0	3

Starters

Brewers
Player	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Dustin May SP	7.0	10	4	0	5

Rays
Player	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Griffin Jax SP	5.1	2	1	2	5

What went in

Each PA: batter × pitcher × league (log5), 2026 season + postseason, MLB Stats API.
Tonight's lineups. No steals, errors, park or platoon effects.
Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok