MLB Wed, Oct 28 · World Series · Game 5 Final

Brewers @ Rays

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
MIL Brewers	2	4
TB Rays	1	1

MIL 56% of runs won 44% TB

✓ The sim had it. The Brewers won 56% of the runs, and won the real game, MIL by 3.

Wild card · 1 in 10 runs

Rays force Game 6 with a shutout

Didn’t hit. Real: MIL 4, TB 1.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · MIL by 1

Real · MIL by 3

← MIL by 15+ 0 TB by 15+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Hits

03 SimReal

Jackson Chourio MIL

1 1

Jake Bauers MIL

1 0

Christian Yelich MIL

1 0

William Contreras MIL

1 1

Brice Turang MIL

1 2

Sal Frelick MIL

1 0

Cooper Pratt MIL

1 2

Garrett Mitchell MIL

1 1

David Hamilton MIL

1 1

Yandy Díaz TB

1 0

Jonathan Aranda TB

1 0

Junior Caminero TB

1 1

Liam Hicks TB

1 1

Jonny DeLuca TB

1 0

Chandler Simpson TB

1 2

Ben Williamson TB

1 0

Ryan Vilade TB

1 0

Taylor Walls TB

0 0

Strikeouts

010 SimReal

Jacob Misiorowski MIL

6 2

55,680 of 1,000,000 runs went that low.

Drew Rasmussen TB

4 4

Innings pitched

06.2 SimReal

Jacob Misiorowski MIL

5.0 5.2

Drew Rasmussen TB

4.0 4.0

Line score

	2	5	6	8	9	R
The sim’s callMIL	0	0	0	0	2	2
TB	0	0	0	1	0	1
RealMIL	1	1	2	0	0	4
TB	0	0	0	0	1	1

The sim’s call

The Brewers’ most common winning score across all 1,000,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. MIL 2, TB 1. 3.8% of runs ended exactly that way.

Batting

Brewers
Player	H-AB	R	RBI	BB	K
Jackson Chourio	3-5	1	1	0	2
Jake Bauers	1-4	0	1	1	1
Christian Yelich	2-4	0	0	1	0
William Contreras	0-4	0	0	0	0
Brice Turang	1-4	0	0	0	0
Sal Frelick	1-4	0	0	0	1
Cooper Pratt	0-3	0	0	1	2
Garrett Mitchell	1-4	0	0	0	1
David Hamilton	1-3	1	0	1	1

Rays
Player	H-AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K
Yandy Díaz	0-4	0	0	0	0	3
Jonathan Aranda	0-3	0	0	0	1	2
Junior Caminero	2-4	1	1	1	0	1
Liam Hicks	0-4	0	0	0	0	0
Jonny DeLuca	0-4	0	0	0	0	1
Chandler Simpson	1-4	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Williamson	2-4	0	0	0	0	1
Ryan Vilade	2-4	0	0	0	0	0
Taylor Walls	1-3	0	0	0	1	1

Starters

Brewers
Player	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Jacob Misiorowski SP	4.2	4	0	2	6

Rays
Player	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Drew Rasmussen SP	3.2	4	0	2	4

What went in

Each PA: batter × pitcher × league (log5), 2026 season + postseason, MLB Stats API.
Rays: tonight's lineup; Rasmussen on short rest, capped at 16 batters. Brewers: Game 4's lineup.
Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok