million_runs
← The record
NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Broncos @ Cardinals

Simulated 1,000,000 times

TeamTypicalReal
DEN Broncos 24 30
ARI Cardinals 19 16

✓ The sim had it. The Broncos won 63% of the runs, and won the real game, DEN by 14.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · DEN by 5
Real · DEN by 14
← DEN by 35+ 0 ARI by 35+ →
Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0350 SimReal
Bo Nix DEN
245 222
Jacoby Brissett ARI
241 272

Rushing yards

0110 SimReal
J.K. Dobbins DEN
63 23

About 4.5% of runs went that low.

RJ Harvey DEN
15 6
Tyler Allgeier ARI
55 19

About 8.7% of runs went that low.

Bam Knight ARI
16 48

About 8.2% of runs went that high.

Receiving yards

0150 SimReal
Jaylen Waddle DEN
59 48
Courtland Sutton DEN
37 45
Evan Engram DEN
26 2
Trey McBride ARI
77 111
Michael Wilson ARI
64 55
Kendrick Bourne ARI
33 9
Jalen Brooks ARI
10 35

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. DEN 24, ARI 19.

Broncos
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Bo Nix QB 21/31 · 2576 · 253
Jaylen Waddle WR 2 · 35 · 741
J.K. Dobbins RB 12 · 70
RJ Harvey RB 3 · 154 · 331
Jonah Coleman RB 4 · 242 · 19
Marvin Mims Jr. WR 1 · 103 · 261
Courtland Sutton WR 3 · 33
Evan Engram TE 1 · 32
Adam Prentice FB 1 · 21
Troy Franklin WR 1 · 12
Adam Trautman TE 1 · 7
Cardinals
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Jacoby Brissett QB 23/34 · 2377 · 92
Tyler Allgeier RB 10 · 462 · 35
Trey McBride TE 9 · 80
Michael Wilson WR 7 · 68
Kendrick Bourne WR 3 · 26
Bam Knight RB 4 · 19
Elijah Higgins TE 1 · 181
Reggie Virgil WR 1 · 10

What went in

  • Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
  • Out: none listed · Jeremiyah Love, Tip Reiman. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
  • 1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok