Buccaneers @ Panthers
Simulated 1,000,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| TB Buccaneers | 21 | 43 |
| CAR Panthers | 24 | 13 |
✗ A miss. The Panthers won 57% of the runs, but the Buccaneers won the real game, TB by 30. TB won by that much or more in 0.8% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.
Passing yards
Fewer than 1 in 1,000 runs went that low.
About 3.5% of runs went that low.
Fewer than 1 in 1,000 runs went that high.
Rushing yards
About 0.6% of runs went that high.
About 9.3% of runs went that low.
Receiving yards
About 2.8% of runs went that low.
About 7.4% of runs went that low.
About 7.3% of runs went that low.
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. TB 21, CAR 24.
| Player | PASS | RUSH | REC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield QB | 19/38 · 227 | 1 · -2 | 2 | |
| Jalon Daniels QB | 3 · 14 | |||
| Bucky Irving RB | 15 · 69 | 3 · 26 | 1 | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR | 1 · 20 | 6 · 52 | ||
| Cade Otton TE | 5 · 52 | |||
| Ted Hurst III WR | 3 · 37 | 1 | ||
| Kenny Gainwell RB | 3 · 2 | 1 · 33 | ||
| Tez Johnson WR | 1 · 6 | 1 · 27 | 1 | |
| Sean Tucker RB | 2 · 11 |
| Player | PASS | RUSH | REC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young QB | 22/32 · 260 | 5 · 28 | 2 | |
| Chuba Hubbard RB | 20 · 94 | 1 · 9 | 1 | |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR | 8 · 94 | |||
| Jalen Coker WR | 4 · 43 | 1 | ||
| Darren Waller TE | 3 · 32 | |||
| Tommy Tremble TE | 2 · 32 | |||
| John Metchie III WR | 2 · 26 | |||
| Brycen Tremayne WR | 1 · 13 | |||
| Mitchell Evans TE | 1 · 11 |
What went in
- Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
- Out: Emeka Egbuka · AJ Dillon, Haynes King, Ja'Tavion Sanders. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
- 1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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