NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Sabres @ Ducks

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
BUF Sabres	2	7
ANA Ducks	4	6

BUF 46% of runs won 54% ANA

✗ A miss. The Ducks won 54% of the runs, but the Sabres won the real game, BUF by 1. BUF won by that much or more in 46% of runs.

Wild card · 1 in 6 runs

Sabres by 3+

Didn’t hit. Real: BUF by 1.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · ANA by 2

Real · BUF by 1

← BUF by 6+ 0 ANA by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Sabres
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Tage Thompson	41%	62%	3	2
Jack Quinn	34%	58%	1	0
Rasmus Dahlin	24%	44%	0	2
Noah Ostlund	24%	53%	1	0
Zach Benson	22%	59%	1	2
Olen Zellweger	21%	33%	0	1
Josh Doan	16%	24%	0	0
Owen Power	15%	61%	0	0
Mattias Samuelsson	14%	42%	0	1
Josh Norris	14%	23%	0	0
Ryan McLeod	11%	26%	0	0
Louis Crevier	8%	16%	0	0

Ducks
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Beckett Sennecke	43%	57%	1	1
Cutter Gauthier	41%	63%	2	0
Leo Carlsson	27%	73%	0	3
Mikael Granlund	26%	59%	1	0
Alex Killorn	20%	38%	0	0
Tyson Hinds	13%	14%	0	0
Tristan Luneau	13%	43%	1	0
Jackson LaCombe	12%	70%	0	2
Noah Warren	8%	33%	0	0
Drew Helleson	7%	7%	–	–
Travis Mitchell	5%	13%	0	0
Nick Jensen	4%	4%	0	1

The sim’s call

The Ducks’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. BUF 2, ANA 4. 3.9% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Sabres
Player	G	A	Shots
Jack Quinn	1	0	2
Olen Zellweger	1	0	2
Josh Norris	0	1	1
Mattias Samuelsson	0	1	1
Peyton Krebs	0	1	1
Zach Benson	0	1	1
Tage Thompson	0	0	7
Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	4

Ducks
Player	G	A	Shots
Leo Carlsson	1	2	6
Alex Killorn	0	2	1
A.J. Greer	1	0	5
Cutter Gauthier	1	0	4
Beckett Sennecke	1	0	3
Noah Warren	0	1	0
Tristan Luneau	0	1	0

Goalies

Sabres
Player	Shots against	Saves
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	25	21

Ducks
Player	Shots against	Saves
Lukas Dostal	28	26

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen / Lukas Dostal, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.