NHL Tue, Oct 27 Final

Sabres @ Sharks

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
BUF Sabres	3	2
SJ Sharks	4	0

BUF 42% of runs won 58% SJ

✗ A miss. The Sharks won 58% of the runs, but the Sabres won the real game, BUF by 2. BUF won by that much or more in 24% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · SJ by 1

Real · BUF by 2

← BUF by 6+ 0 SJ by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Sabres
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Tage Thompson	40%	57%	0	1
Jack Quinn	33%	57%	0	0
Noah Ostlund	24%	52%	0	0
Rasmus Dahlin	24%	43%	0	0
Olen Zellweger	23%	37%	1	0
Zach Benson	17%	57%	1	0
Josh Doan	17%	26%	0	0
Owen Power	16%	57%	0	2
Mattias Samuelsson	16%	48%	0	0
Josh Norris	15%	24%	0	0
Ryan McLeod	10%	27%	0	0
Louis Crevier	10%	20%	0	0

Sharks
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Macklin Celebrini	38%	77%	0	0
Will Smith	33%	57%	0	0
Mason Marchment	25%	34%	0	0
Kiefer Sherwood	22%	51%	0	0
Ivar Stenberg	21%	60%	0	0
Darnell Nurse	20%	30%	0	0
Jacob Trouba	18%	58%	0	0
Dmitry Orlov	15%	41%	0	0
Luca Cagnoni	13%	24%	0	0
Nolan Allan	12%	13%	–	–
Michael Kesselring	11%	32%	0	0
Sam Dickinson	8%	29%	0	0

Not an average: one real run out of the 100,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. BUF 3, SJ 4.

Sabres
Player	G	A	Shots
Owen Power	1	1	4
Mattias Samuelsson	0	2	2
Josh Norris	1	0	3
Konsta Helenius	1	0	2
Zach Benson	0	1	1
Olen Zellweger	0	0	5
Rasmus Dahlin	0	0	4

Sharks
Player	G	A	Shots
Macklin Celebrini	0	2	4
Darnell Nurse	1	0	3
Will Smith	1	0	3
Barclay Goodrow	1	0	2
Luca Cagnoni	1	0	2
Kiefer Sherwood	0	1	2
Tyler Toffoli	0	1	1
Sam Dickinson	0	1	1
Dmitry Orlov	0	1	0
Michael Kesselring	0	1	0

Sabres
Player	Shots against	Saves
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	21	17

Sharks
Player	Shots against	Saves
Alex Nedeljkovic	31	28

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen / Alex Nedeljkovic, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.