Cavaliers @ 76ers
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| CLE Cavaliers | 119 | 106 |
| PHI 76ers | 113 | 114 |
✗ A miss. The Cavaliers won 65% of the runs, but the 76ers won the real game, PHI by 8. PHI won by that much or more in 21% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.
782 of 10,000 runs went that high.
399 of 10,000 runs went that low.
852 of 10,000 runs went that low.
361 of 10,000 runs went that high.
382 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. CLE 119, PHI 113.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 19 | 2 | 8 | 5-21 | 1-6 |
| Evan Mobley | 11 | 6 | 5 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 25 | 4 | 6 | 9-20 | 4-9 |
| Peyton Watson | 19 | 4 | 0 | 8-8 | 3-3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 17 | 13 | 3 | 8-9 | 0-0 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-5 |
| Sam Merrill | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Mario Hezonja | 12 | 2 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6-9 | 4-4 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 19 | 7 | 2 | 7-12 | 1-5 |
| Jaylen Brown | 16 | 8 | 2 | 4-13 | 0-2 |
| LeBron James | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-2 |
| Joel Embiid | 19 | 11 | 3 | 6-14 | 2-3 |
| Anfernee Simons | 15 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-6 |
| Dean Wade | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Caleb Love | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season so far, ESPN.
- Out: Diop, Tomlin · Barlow, Fall, Hukporti. Allen and Wade (day-to-day) play.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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