Flames @ Oilers
Simulated 100,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| CGY Flames | 1 | 0 |
| EDM Oilers | 3 | 4 |
✓ The sim had it. The Oilers won 54% of the runs, and won the real game, EDM by 4.
Every run’s final margin
Game shown · EDM by 2
Real · EDM by 4
← CGY by 6+ 0 EDM by 6+ →
Player by player
The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Gridin | 30% | 57% | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Farabee | 29% | 71% | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Coronato | 27% | 70% | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Frost | 27% | 55% | 0 | 0 |
| Zayne Parekh | 22% | 47% | 0 | 0 |
| Mikael Backlund | 20% | 28% | 0 | 0 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 18% | 35% | 0 | 0 |
| Simon Nemec | 14% | 50% | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Middleton | 10% | 20% | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Bahl | 9% | 19% | 0 | 0 |
| Yan Kuznetsov | 9% | 26% | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Whitecloud | 9% | 11% | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 52% | 80% | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Bouchard | 41% | 80% | 0 | 1 |
| Connor McDavid | 38% | 88% | 0 | 2 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | 35% | 57% | 0 | 0 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 20% | 33% | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 13% | 29% | 0 | 2 |
| Mathieu Joseph | 12% | 30% | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Formenton | 12% | 30% | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Shea | 11% | 31% | 0 | 0 |
| Mattias Ekholm | 9% | 23% | 1 | 0 |
| Connor Murphy | 9% | 17% | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Walman | 9% | 16% | – | – |
What a Oilers win looks like
One real run out of the 100,000: a Oilers win, with the final drawn as often as it came up in the runs. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. CGY 1, EDM 3. 2.2% of runs ended exactly that way.
Skaters
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Coronato | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Martin Pospisil | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Adam Klapka | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Zayne Parekh | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Connor McDavid | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Goalies
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley | 25 | 22 |
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | 27 | 26 |
What went in
- Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Devin Cooley / Tristan Jarry, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
- Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
- 100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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