NBA Wed, Oct 28 Final

Hornets @ Pistons

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
CHA Hornets	107	89
DET Pistons	109	97

CHA 46% of runs won 54% DET

✓ The sim had it. The Pistons won 54% of the runs, and won the real game, DET by 8.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · DET by 2

Real · DET by 8

← CHA by 30+ 0 DET by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 6 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Brandon Miller CHA

22 31

Naz Reid CHA

16 7

566 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Grayson Allen CHA

16 9

Dennis Schroder CHA

14 14

Moussa Diabate CHA

10 9

Royce O'Neale CHA

8 9

Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA

8 1

181 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Sion James CHA

7 5

Tidjane Salaun CHA

7 2

Cade Cunningham DET

24 30

John Collins DET

15 4

229 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Duncan Robinson DET

14 13

Paul Reed DET

12 16

Ausar Thompson DET

11 7

Daniss Jenkins DET

11 14

Kevin Huerter DET

8 3

Taurean Prince DET

7 1

580 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Ronald Holland II DET

7 0

316 of 10,000 runs went that low.

What a Pistons win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Pistons win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. CHA 107, DET 109. Pistons by exactly 2 in 2.4% of runs.

Hornets
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Brandon Miller	22	8	5	9-24	2-11
Naz Reid	14	5	5	6-16	2-6
Dennis Schroder	13	5	8	3-6	1-1
Moussa Diabate	11	13	2	5-8	0-0
Grayson Allen	15	3	2	2-15	1-10
Sion James	8	4	1	3-7	2-6
Royce O'Neale	7	2	2	3-5	1-2
Ryan Kalkbrenner	10	2	5	5-6	0-0
Tidjane Salaun	7	2	0	3-7	1-5

Pistons
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Cade Cunningham	21	8	7	8-16	1-3
Duncan Robinson	9	2	2	3-7	3-7
John Collins	15	7	0	6-10	1-2
Ausar Thompson	9	9	5	4-8	0-1
Daniss Jenkins	13	2	2	4-10	3-6
Kevin Huerter	7	3	0	3-8	1-3
Paul Reed	19	6	2	8-9	1-1
Taurean Prince	10	7	2	4-6	2-4
Ronald Holland II	6	2	1	2-3	0-1

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
Out: Boswell, Knueppel, White, Williams · Duren, Joe.
Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Thompson.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

What a Pistons win looks like

What went in

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