NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Blackhawks @ Red Wings

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
CHI Blackhawks	2	1
DET Red Wings	5	4

CHI 40% of runs won 60% DET

✓ The sim had it. The Red Wings won 60% of the runs, and won the real game, DET by 3.

Wild card · 1 in 18 runs

John Gibson: shutout

Didn’t hit. Real: CHI 1, DET 4.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · DET by 3

Real · DET by 3

← CHI by 6+ 0 DET by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Blackhawks
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Roman Kantserov	31%	33%	0	1
Patrick Kane	23%	67%	0	0
Connor Bedard	20%	54%	1	0
Tyler Bertuzzi	20%	47%	0	0
Frank Nazar	19%	37%	0	0
Anton Frondell	19%	54%	0	0
Artyom Levshunov	15%	32%	0	0
Teuvo Teravainen	14%	48%	0	0
Sam Rinzel	12%	23%	0	0
Wyatt Kaiser	8%	34%	0	1
Alex Vlasic	7%	26%	0	0
Ian Cole	5%	7%	0	0

Red Wings
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Alex DeBrincat	45%	74%	0	2
Lucas Raymond	37%	74%	1	0
Viktor Arvidsson	36%	64%	3	1
Emmitt Finnie	28%	49%	0	1
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard	26%	60%	0	0
Andrew Copp	22%	32%	0	0
Moritz Seider	22%	63%	0	1
Justin Faulk	19%	43%	0	0
Michael Rasmussen	16%	34%	0	0
William Wallinder	10%	19%	0	1
Ben Chiarot	8%	19%	0	0
J.T. Compher	5%	23%	0	1

The sim’s call

The Red Wings’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. CHI 2, DET 5. 4.3% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Blackhawks
Player	G	A	Shots
Teuvo Teravainen	0	2	1
Patrick Kane	1	0	5
Roman Kantserov	1	0	2
Anton Frondell	0	1	1
Frank Nazar	0	0	3
Oliver Moore	0	0	3

Red Wings
Player	G	A	Shots
Lucas Raymond	1	3	2
Viktor Arvidsson	1	1	6
Moritz Seider	0	2	2
Justin Faulk	1	0	4
Alex DeBrincat	1	0	3
Emmitt Finnie	1	0	3
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard	0	0	5

Goalies

Blackhawks
Player	Shots against	Saves
Spencer Knight	31	26

Red Wings
Player	Shots against	Saves
John Gibson	23	21

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Spencer Knight / John Gibson, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.