NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Chiefs @ Seahawks

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
KC Chiefs	23	3
SEA Seahawks	21	20

KC 52% of runs won 48% SEA

✗ A miss. The Chiefs won 52% of the runs, but the Seahawks won the real game, SEA by 17. SEA won by that much or more in 8.9% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · KC by 2

Real · SEA by 17

← KC by 35+ 0 SEA by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0350 SimReal

Patrick Mahomes KC

226 165

Sam Darnold SEA

239 257

Rushing yards

0150 SimReal

Kenneth Walker III KC

86 36

About 8.8% of runs went that low.

Emmett Johnson KC

14 0

Emanuel Wilson SEA

62 100

George Holani SEA

22 11

Receiving yards

0200 SimReal

Xavier Worthy KC

53 11

About 6.7% of runs went that low.

Travis Kelce KC

51 44

Noah Gray KC

18 44

Jalen Royals KC

13 0

Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA

85 150

Rashid Shaheed SEA

33 1

About 8.4% of runs went that low.

Cooper Kupp SEA

30 20

AJ Barner SEA

27 42

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. KC 23, SEA 21.

Chiefs
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Patrick Mahomes QB	21/34 · 216	4 · 43		2
Kenneth Walker III RB		26 · 90	4 · 59
Travis Kelce TE			4 · 50	1
Emmett Johnson RB		2 · 11	2 · 32	1
Xavier Worthy WR			8 · 29
Noah Gray TE			1 · 25
Cyrus Allen WR			1 · 11
Jalen Royals WR			1 · 10

Seahawks
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Sam Darnold QB	22/31 · 236	1 · 6		3
Emanuel Wilson RB		9 · 59	2 · 67	1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR			7 · 77
Rashid Shaheed WR			5 · 39	1
AJ Barner TE			3 · 19
Cooper Kupp WR			3 · 17
George Holani RB		3 · 6	1 · 6
Tory Horton WR			1 · 11	1
Velus Jones Jr. RB		2 · 5

What went in

Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
Out: Rashee Rice, Jaylon Moore, O. Norman-Lott · Zach Charbonnet, Terrion Arnold, Drake Thomas, Chazz Surratt. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok