Cavaliers @ Hawks
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| CLE Cavaliers | 110 | 111 |
| ATL Hawks | 105 | 114 |
✗ A miss. The Cavaliers won 60% of the runs, but the Hawks won the real game, ATL by 3. ATL won by that much or more in 35% of runs.
Wild card · 1 in 11 runs
Jalen Johnson: 30+ points
Didn’t hit. Real: 17 points.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 5 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.
446 of 10,000 runs went that low.
963 of 10,000 runs went that low.
672 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
286 of 10,000 runs went that low.
56 of 10,000 runs went that high.
902 of 10,000 runs went that low.
474 of 10,000 runs went that high.
What a Cavaliers win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Cavaliers win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. CLE 110, ATL 105. Cavaliers by exactly 5 in 2.7% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 17 | 5 | 5 | 5-13 | 4-6 |
| Evan Mobley | 13 | 13 | 4 | 5-10 | 0-3 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 25 | 4 | 5 | 11-23 | 1-6 |
| Peyton Watson | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-2 |
| Jarrett Allen | 14 | 9 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-0 |
| Sam Merrill | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Mario Hezonja | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Meleek Thomas | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 17 | 13 | 4 | 4-14 | 2-6 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-8 |
| Dyson Daniels | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-5 |
| CJ McCollum | 20 | 3 | 1 | 8-12 | 3-5 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-3 |
| Luguentz Dort | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| Kingston Flemings | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Jock Landale | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: none · Gueye, Veesaar.
- Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Thomas, Tyson.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
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