NBA Fri, Oct 23 Final

Clippers @ Lakers

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
LAC Clippers	113	117
LAL Lakers	119	125

LAC 37% of runs won 63% LAL

✓ The sim had it. The Lakers won 63% of the runs, and won the real game, LAL by 8.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · LAL by 6

Real · LAL by 8

← LAC by 30+ 0 LAL by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 10 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Darius Garland LAC

24 26

Rui Hachimura LAC

16 16

Derrick Jones Jr. LAC

14 16

Keaton Wagler LAC

13 13

Brook Lopez LAC

10 22

252 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Isaiah Jackson LAC

10 6

Kris Dunn LAC

9 7

Gradey Dick LAC

9 6

Kobe Sanders LAC

6 5

Luka Doncic LAL

28 23

Austin Reaves LAL

21 28

Quentin Grimes LAL

12 13

Ziaire Williams LAL

11 14

Sandro Mamukelashvili LAL

10 7

Walker Kessler LAL

10 22

132 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Collin Sexton LAL

10 5

Jake LaRavia LAL

9 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Matisse Thybulle LAL

6 13

693 of 10,000 runs went that high.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. LAC 113, LAL 119.

Clippers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Darius Garland	30	5	9	11-17	2-5
Rui Hachimura	19	4	3	7-15	5-7
Derrick Jones Jr.	9	8	1	4-9	0-3
Kris Dunn	12	5	5	5-7	1-3
Keaton Wagler	7	5	6	1-6	1-4
Brook Lopez	11	2	3	4-10	3-6
Isaiah Jackson	19	10	1	7-8	0-0
Gradey Dick	3	1	0	1-9	0-8
Kobe Sanders	3	3	2	1-3	1-2

Lakers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Austin Reaves	22	6	2	8-18	1-6
Luka Doncic	30	10	9	10-20	1-7
Quentin Grimes	17	3	4	5-8	3-6
Jake LaRavia	8	2	2	2-4	2-4
Ziaire Williams	8	4	0	1-4	0-2
Sandro Mamukelashvili	13	4	1	6-11	1-4
Walker Kessler	1	8	1	0-3	0-1
Matisse Thybulle	12	3	0	3-6	3-6
Collin Sexton	8	1	4	4-6	0-1

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: Beal, Ingram, Strus, J. Miller, Niederhauser · Carr, Thiero. LaRavia (day-to-day) plays.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.