NBA Fri, Oct 23 Final

Clippers @ Lakers

Simulated 10,000 times · a second video of this game, not counted in the record

Team	Typical	Real
LAC Clippers	109	117
LAL Lakers	118	125

LAC 29% of runs won 71% LAL

✓ The sim had it. The Lakers won 71% of the runs, and won the real game, LAL by 8.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · LAL by 9

Real · LAL by 8

← LAC by 30+ 0 LAL by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 10 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Darius Garland LAC

23 26

Rui Hachimura LAC

16 16

Derrick Jones Jr. LAC

14 16

Keaton Wagler LAC

13 13

Brook Lopez LAC

10 22

231 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Isaiah Jackson LAC

10 6

Kris Dunn LAC

9 7

Gradey Dick LAC

8 6

Kobe Sanders LAC

5 5

Luka Doncic LAL

28 23

Austin Reaves LAL

22 28

Walker Kessler LAL

13 22

670 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Quentin Grimes LAL

13 13

Ziaire Williams LAL

11 14

Sandro Mamukelashvili LAL

10 7

Collin Sexton LAL

10 5

Matisse Thybulle LAL

6 13

898 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Jarred Vanderbilt LAL

5 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. LAC 109, LAL 118.

Clippers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Darius Garland	21	3	8	8-21	1-7
Rui Hachimura	15	7	2	4-13	2-7
Derrick Jones Jr.	13	7	2	5-8	2-5
Kris Dunn	11	6	2	5-8	1-4
Keaton Wagler	16	5	2	4-13	2-8
Brook Lopez	11	2	4	5-6	1-2
Isaiah Jackson	13	8	3	4-8	0-0
Gradey Dick	4	4	1	2-3	0-1
Kobe Sanders	5	2	3	2-9	0-5

Lakers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Austin Reaves	21	6	2	7-17	4-9
Luka Doncic	27	12	6	9-21	0-7
Walker Kessler	16	14	1	7-8	0-0
Quentin Grimes	18	3	4	8-10	2-3
Ziaire Williams	4	1	1	1-5	0-3
Sandro Mamukelashvili	5	2	3	1-6	1-4
Matisse Thybulle	5	1	3	2-4	1-3
Collin Sexton	15	3	3	5-8	3-3
Jarred Vanderbilt	7	4	1	3-4	1-2

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season so far, ESPN; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games last season.
Out: Beal, Ingram, Strus, J. Miller, Niederhauser · Carr, Thiero. LaRavia (day-to-day) plays.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

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