million_runs
← The record
NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Colts @ Vikings

Simulated 1,000,000 times

TeamTypicalReal
IND Colts 16 10
MIN Vikings 27 16

✓ The sim had it. The Vikings won 81% of the runs, and won the real game, MIN by 6.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · MIN by 11
Real · MIN by 6
← IND by 35+ 0 MIN by 35+ →
Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal
Daniel Jones IND
212 108

About 5.0% of runs went that low.

Kyler Murray MIN
244 150

About 6.8% of runs went that low.

Rushing yards

0200 SimReal
Jonathan Taylor IND
61 95
Seth McGowan IND
8 46

About 1.3% of runs went that high.

Aaron Jones Sr. MIN
97 26

About 2.5% of runs went that low.

Jordan Mason MIN
12 68

About 1.1% of runs went that high.

Receiving yards

0110 SimReal
Josh Downs IND
52 18
Keenan Allen IND
49 31
Laquon Treadwell IND
27 19
Ashton Dulin IND
0 0
T.J. Hockenson MIN
50 35
Justin Jefferson MIN
46 44
Jordan Addison MIN
35 20
Myles Price MIN
9 0

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. IND 16, MIN 27.

Colts
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Daniel Jones QB 16/28 · 2091 · 8
Jonathan Taylor RB 14 · 572 · 231
Keenan Allen WR 4 · 63
Laquon Treadwell WR 3 · 39
Mo Alie-Cox TE 3 · 36
Josh Downs WR 3 · 35
Deion Burks WR 1 · 13
Seth McGowan RB 3 · 4
Vikings
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Kyler Murray QB 18/30 · 2274 · 113
Carson Wentz QB 2 · 10
Aaron Jones Sr. RB 22 · 964 · 44
T.J. Hockenson TE 3 · 622
Justin Jefferson WR 4 · 44
Jordan Addison WR 1 · 61 · 33
Jauan Jennings WR 2 · 191
Myles Price WR 1 · 91 · 9
Jordan Mason RB 5 · 10
Tai Felton WR 1 · 8
Jeshaun Jones WR 1 · 4
Gavin Bartholomew TE 1 · 4

What went in

  • Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
  • Out: Anthony Gould, Riley Leonard, Tyler Warren · Max Brosmer, Demond Claiborne. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
  • 1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok