NFL Mon, Oct 26 Final

Cowboys @ Eagles

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
DAL Cowboys	23	38
PHI Eagles	20	21

DAL 57% of runs won 43% PHI

✓ The sim had it. The Cowboys won 57% of the runs, and won the real game, DAL by 17.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · DAL by 3

Real · DAL by 17

← DAL by 35+ 0 PHI by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal

Dak Prescott DAL

283 212

Tanner McKee PHI

232 211

Rushing yards

0200 SimReal

Javonte Williams DAL

53 155

Fewer than 1 in 1,000 runs went that high.

Tyler Goodson DAL

5 38

About 0.9% of runs went that high.

Saquon Barkley PHI

54 62

Dameon Pierce PHI

33 47

Receiving yards

0150 SimReal

CeeDee Lamb DAL

80 74

George Pickens DAL

60 57

Ryan Flournoy DAL

39 70

Jake Ferguson DAL

24 0

Makai Lemon PHI

62 67

Dallas Goedert PHI

53 48

Darius Cooper PHI

31 17

Zach Ertz PHI

15 0

Hollywood Brown PHI

0 30

Fewer than 1 in 1,000 runs went that high.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. DAL 23, PHI 20.

Cowboys
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Dak Prescott QB	27/45 · 278	3 · -13		2
Javonte Williams RB		21 · 78	4 · 36
CeeDee Lamb WR			7 · 79	1
George Pickens WR			4 · 47	1
Ryan Flournoy WR			4 · 43
Jake Ferguson TE			4 · 33
Hunter Luepke FB			1 · 21
Jonathan Mingo WR			1 · 14
Luke Schoonmaker TE			1 · 2
Tyler Goodson RB		2 · -2	1 · 3

Eagles
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Tanner McKee QB	21/33 · 232			1
Saquon Barkley RB		15 · 52	1 · 12	1
Makai Lemon WR			7 · 64
Dameon Pierce RB		6 · 31	2 · 29
Dallas Goedert TE			5 · 53
Johnny Mundt TE			1 · 29
Zach Ertz TE			3 · 25
Darius Cooper WR			2 · 20	1

What went in

v2: offenses calibrated to opponent-adjusted ratings; PHI passing leans on McKee's own attempts.
Out: Hurts, D. Smith, Wicks · Turpin. Barkley (questionable) plays in the sim.
1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok