Nuggets @ Pelicans
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| DEN Nuggets | 121 | 104 |
| NOP Pelicans | 111 | 91 |
✓ The sim had it. The Nuggets won 73% of the runs, and won the real game, DEN by 13.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.
334 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
493 of 10,000 runs went that low.
563 of 10,000 runs went that low.
What a Nuggets win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Nuggets win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. DEN 121, NOP 111. Nuggets by exactly 10 in 2.6% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 18 | 4 | 5 | 7-15 | 1-5 |
| Nikola Jokic | 24 | 13 | 7 | 7-21 | 1-6 |
| Christian Braun | 15 | 6 | 5 | 7-12 | 1-2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 16 | 5 | 2 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Gordon | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3-12 | 0-2 |
| Cameron Johnson | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| Trevon Brazile | 15 | 7 | 1 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 9 | 8 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 19 | 12 | 5 | 7-10 | 3-5 |
| Dejounte Murray | 13 | 5 | 5 | 6-14 | 1-6 |
| Zion Williamson | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-2 |
| Saddiq Bey | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-14 | 1-7 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Derik Queen | 12 | 7 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 0-3 |
| Herbert Jones | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Poole | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Diallo, Jones, Strawther · Missi.
- Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Johnson.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
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