NHL Tue, Oct 27 Final

Devils @ Stars

Simulated 1,000,000 times

↻ Re-run: Hellebuyck starts. The re-run is the sim that was posted, and the one scored.

Team	Typical	Real
NJD Devils	3	5
DAL Stars	4	1

NJD 49% of runs won 51% DAL

✗ A miss. The Stars won 51% of the runs, but the Devils won the real game, NJD by 4. NJD won by that much or more in 7.1% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · DAL by 1

Real · NJD by 4

← NJD by 6+ 0 DAL by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

The share of all 1,000,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Devils
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Timo Meier	29%	48%	0	1
Jack Hughes	29%	68%	1	1
Arseny Gritsyuk	25%	45%	0	1
Luke Hughes	25%	34%	1	1
Nico Hischier	24%	39%	2	0
Luke Evangelista	20%	47%	0	1
Jesper Bratt	20%	63%	0	1
Dougie Hamilton	20%	48%	0	1
Evan Rodrigues	13%	37%	0	0
Brett Pesce	10%	36%	0	1
Johnathan Kovacevic	4%	5%	0	1
Jonas Siegenthaler	3%	24%	0	0

Stars
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Jason Robertson	35%	69%	0	0
Mikko Rantanen	29%	67%	0	0
Tyler Seguin	28%	48%	0	0
Roope Hintz	27%	57%	0	0
Wyatt Johnston	24%	59%	0	0
Miro Heiskanen	23%	55%	0	0
Arttu Hyry	20%	22%	0	0
Thomas Harley	17%	53%	0	0
Justin Hryckowian	13%	15%	1	0
Nils Lundkvist	8%	35%	0	0
Tyler Myers	7%	9%	0	1
Lian Bichsel	6%	18%	0	0

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. NJD 3, DAL 4.

Devils
Player	G	A	Shots
Nico Hischier	2	0	4
Jesper Bratt	1	1	2
Timo Meier	0	1	6
Jack Hughes	0	1	4
Luke Evangelista	0	1	3
Brett Pesce	0	1	2
Evan Rodrigues	0	1	2
Cody Glass	0	0	4
Luke Hughes	0	0	4

Stars
Player	G	A	Shots
Roope Hintz	2	1	4
Jason Robertson	1	1	8
Thomas Harley	1	1	3
Wyatt Johnston	0	2	2
Mikko Rantanen	0	2	1
Miro Heiskanen	0	1	4
Tyler Seguin	0	0	3

Devils
Player	Shots against	Saves
Connor Hellebuyck	32	28

Stars
Player	Shots against	Saves
Casey DeSmith	35	32

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's confirmed goalies: Hellebuyck (his 2025-26, no games yet this season) and DeSmith. Power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Out: Casey (IR) · Steel, Faksa, Lindell, Duchene, Back, C. Hughes, Krys. Injury report as of 1 PM CT.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners. 1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.