NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Dolphins @ Jets

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
MIA Dolphins	16	28
NYJ Jets	24	25

MIA 23% of runs won 77% NYJ

✗ A miss. The Jets won 77% of the runs, but the Dolphins won the real game, MIA by 3. MIA won by that much or more in 20% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · NYJ by 8

Real · MIA by 3

← MIA by 35+ 0 NYJ by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal

Malik Willis MIA

183 208

Geno Smith NYJ

257 287

Rushing yards

0150 SimReal

Ollie Gordon II MIA

42 103

About 3.7% of runs went that high.

Jaylen Wright MIA

13 8

Braelon Allen NYJ

72 104

Isaiah Davis NYJ

7 5

Receiving yards

0150 SimReal

Malik Washington MIA

60 27

Greg Dulcich MIA

27 86

About 3.4% of runs went that high.

Chris Bell MIA

22 25

Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA

20 0

Caleb Douglas MIA

11 70

About 1.9% of runs went that high.

Garrett Wilson NYJ

75 26

Kenyon Sadiq NYJ

33 6

Adonai Mitchell NYJ

22 0

Isaiah Williams NYJ

18 0

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MIA 16, NYJ 24.

Dolphins
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Malik Willis QB	18/34 · 173	5 · 46		1
Malik Washington WR		2 · 9	7 · 54
Will Kacmarek TE			4 · 53
Ollie Gordon II RB		8 · 42
Chris Bell WR			2 · 34
Kevin Coleman Jr. WR			3 · 15
Greg Dulcich TE			1 · 14
Jaylen Wright RB		4 · 10
Caleb Douglas WR			1 · 3

Jets
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Geno Smith QB	26/35 · 254	7 · 3		2
Braelon Allen RB		21 · 83	3 · 40	1
Garrett Wilson WR			8 · 80
Isaiah Williams WR			2 · 38	1
Adonai Mitchell WR			3 · 24	1
Omar Cooper Jr. WR			1 · 23
Kenyon Sadiq TE			2 · 18
Tim Patrick WR			3 · 15
Mason Taylor TE			3 · 11
Isaiah Davis RB		2 · 8
Jeremy Ruckert TE			1 · 5

What went in

Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
Out: Jalen Tolbert · Breece Hall, Kene Nwangwu. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok