NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Giants @ Texans

Simulated 1,000,000 times

Team	Typical	Real · OT
NYG Giants	20	27
HOU Texans	26	21

NYG 31% of runs won 69% HOU

✗ A miss. The Texans won 69% of the runs, but the Giants won the real game, NYG by 6. NYG won by that much or more in 19% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · HOU by 6

Real · NYG by 6

← NYG by 35+ 0 HOU by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal

J.J. McCarthy NYG

232 252

Jameis Winston NYG

0 0

C.J. Stroud HOU

261 153

About 3.2% of runs went that low.

Rushing yards

0150 SimReal

Cam Skattebo NYG

56 124

About 2.8% of runs went that high.

Devin Singletary NYG

8 41

About 2.8% of runs went that high.

Woody Marks HOU

74 66

Receiving yards

0150 SimReal

Malik Nabers NYG

69 111

Isaiah Likely NYG

68 12

About 3.5% of runs went that low.

Malachi Fields NYG

22 83

About 4.6% of runs went that high.

Darnell Mooney NYG

19 4

Dalton Schultz HOU

49 45

Xavier Hutchinson HOU

44 17

Nico Collins HOU

39 6

Kayshon Boutte HOU

26 25

Jaylin Noel HOU

26 -3

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. NYG 20, HOU 26.

Giants
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
J.J. McCarthy QB	20/30 · 233			1
Jameis Winston QB		3 · 12
Cam Skattebo RB		16 · 64	3 · 27	1
Isaiah Likely TE			5 · 78	1
Malik Nabers WR			4 · 60
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB		2 · 1	3 · 36
Darnell Mooney WR		1 · 3	2 · 18
Malachi Fields WR			3 · 14
Devin Singletary RB		1 · 4

Texans
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
C.J. Stroud QB	23/33 · 249	7 · 30		2
Woody Marks RB		18 · 97	1 · 10	1
Jaylin Noel WR		2 · 15	2 · 30
Xavier Hutchinson WR			3 · 41
Dalton Schultz TE			6 · 38
Nico Collins WR		1 · 10	3 · 24	1
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR			2 · 29
Foster Moreau TE			2 · 25
Cade Stover TE			1 · 20
Kayshon Boutte WR			2 · 20	1
Lewis Bond WR			1 · 12

What went in

Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
Out: Jake Haener, Theo Johnson · Jawhar Jordan, Marlin Klein, David Montgomery, Noah Whittington. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok