million_runs
← The record
WNBA Thu, Oct 29 · WNBA Finals · Game 6 Final

Valkyries @ Dream

Simulated 10,000 times

TeamGame shownReal
GSV Valkyries 77 69
ATL Dream 79 80

✓ The sim had it. The Dream won 54% of the runs, and won the real game, ATL by 11.

Wild card · 1 in 9 runs

Dream by 20+

Didn’t hit. Real: ATL by 11.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · ATL by 2
Real · ATL by 11
← GSV by 30+ 0 ATL by 30+ →
Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 6 of 15 landed within 3 points of the sim.

030 SimReal
Gabby Williams GSV
17 26
Veronica Burton GSV
13 8
Tiffany Hayes GSV
9 15
Kayla Thornton GSV
8 0

287 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Cecilia Zandalasini GSV
8 9
Kaila Charles GSV
7 6
Kiah Stokes GSV
5 0

832 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Janelle Salaun GSV
5 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Kaitlyn Chen GSV
4 0
Rhyne Howard ATL
15 21
Angel Reese ATL
15 15
Allisha Gray ATL
15 23
Jordin Canada ATL
11 10
Naz Hillmon ATL
8 7
DeWanna Bonner ATL
7 0

325 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Isobel Borlase ATL
4 4
Madina Okot ATL
1 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Te-Hina Paopao ATL
0 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

What a Dream win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Dream win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. GSV 77, ATL 79. Dream by exactly 2 in 2.9% of runs.

Valkyries
Player PTSREBASTFG3PT
Gabby Williams 15726-143-4
Veronica Burton 16235-93-5
Kiah Stokes 2721-20-1
Kaila Charles 6522-70-2
Kayla Thornton 8303-72-5
Tiffany Hayes 16015-82-4
Cecilia Zandalasini 4312-70-2
Janelle Salaun 4302-40-1
Kaitlyn Chen 6322-32-3
Dream
Player PTSREBASTFG3PT
Rhyne Howard 17656-113-7
Jordin Canada 8474-100-2
Angel Reese 161816-110-0
Naz Hillmon 5422-90-4
Allisha Gray 17126-72-3
DeWanna Bonner 6210-60-3
Isobel Borlase 6102-90-4
Te-Hina Paopao 0000-00-0
Madina Okot 4102-20-0

What went in

  • Players: 2025 play-by-play + this season and playoffs, ESPN; each shot adjusted for today's defense, at this postseason's pace.
  • Out: Rupert · Jones, Villa. Day-to-day, in the sim: Paopao.
  • Our first WNBA sim: replayed on these playoffs, 8 of 21 right. 10,000 runs. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok