Warriors @ Timberwolves
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| GSW Warriors | 109 | 119 |
| MIN Timberwolves | 119 | 114 |
✗ A miss. The Timberwolves won 72% of the runs, but the Warriors won the real game, GSW by 5. GSW won by that much or more in 20% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 15 landed within 3 points of the sim.
39 of 10,000 runs went that high.
701 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
311 of 10,000 runs went that low.
19 of 10,000 runs went that low.
861 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
What a Timberwolves win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Timberwolves win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. GSW 109, MIN 119. Timberwolves by exactly 10 in 2.5% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3-9 | 2-8 |
| Stephen Curry | 23 | 2 | 6 | 9-20 | 5-12 |
| Draymond Green | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5-13 | 1-8 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 14 | 12 | 1 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Gui Santos | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Al Horford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| Georges Niang | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-7 |
| Brandon Williams | 16 | 1 | 3 | 5-10 | 0-3 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 17 | 5 | 6 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Rudy Gobert | 9 | 18 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 12 | 11 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-2 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 16 | 6 | 6 | 5-19 | 1-6 |
| LaMelo Ball | 19 | 8 | 5 | 8-19 | 3-9 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Trey Lyles | 15 | 4 | 2 | 6-9 | 3-6 |
| Cody Williams | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Zyon Pullin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Butler, Moody, Porzingis · DiVincenzo, Edwards.
- Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Lendeborg.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
Get the sims by email.
Tonight’s games and how the last ones held up, misses included. Unsubscribe anytime.