Rockets @ Bucks
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| HOU Rockets | 117 | 132 |
| MIL Bucks | 114 | 100 |
✓ The sim had it. The Rockets won 57% of the runs, and won the real game, HOU by 32.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 3 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.
707 of 10,000 runs went that high.
210 of 10,000 runs went that high.
651 of 10,000 runs went that high.
133 of 10,000 runs went that low.
279 of 10,000 runs went that low.
528 of 10,000 runs went that low.
What a Rockets win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Rockets win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. HOU 117, MIL 114. Rockets by exactly 3 in 2.5% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 18 | 14 | 5 | 7-13 | 0-0 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 19 | 11 | 0 | 8-16 | 3-8 |
| Kevin Durant | 24 | 11 | 7 | 8-18 | 4-6 |
| Fred VanVleet | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Reed Sheppard | 11 | 2 | 4 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Tari Eason | 15 | 1 | 1 | 6-14 | 3-5 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Clint Capela | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7-12 | 1-3 |
| Ryan Rollins | 13 | 8 | 5 | 4-9 | 1-2 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 23 | 4 | 5 | 10-17 | 1-3 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 13 | 9 | 4 | 5-12 | 1-3 |
| Myles Turner | 17 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| AJ Green | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Kel'el Ware | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Adams, Sengun, Smart · none.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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