NBA Tue, Oct 27 Final

Kings @ Spurs

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
SAC Kings	111	103
SAS Spurs	125	130

SAC 20% of runs won 80% SAS

✓ The sim had it. The Spurs won 80% of the runs, and won the real game, SAS by 27.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · SAS by 14

Real · SAS by 27

← SAC by 30+ 0 SAS by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Zach LaVine SAC

20 22

Domantas Sabonis SAC

17 20

Darius Acuff Jr. SAC

14 19

Precious Achiuwa SAC

12 4

435 of 10,000 runs went that low.

De'Andre Hunter SAC

11 24

148 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Leaky Black SAC

8 2

950 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Daeqwon Plowden SAC

8 0

214 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Nique Clifford SAC

7 2

Emanuel Sharp SAC

7 5

Victor Wembanyama SAS

23 29

De'Aaron Fox SAS

17 11

Stephon Castle SAS

17 15

Dylan Harper SAS

14 13

Devin Vassell SAS

13 14

Keldon Johnson SAS

12 14

Julian Champagnie SAS

11 26

107 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Luke Kornet SAS

6 0

525 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Harrison Barnes SAS

6 3

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. SAC 111, SAS 125.

Kings
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Domantas Sabonis	13	14	12	4-11	0-0
Zach LaVine	20	4	3	8-16	4-10
Precious Achiuwa	16	6	0	7-15	0-3
Darius Acuff Jr.	13	1	4	6-10	0-3
De'Andre Hunter	16	5	0	6-12	2-6
Leaky Black	12	3	4	5-8	2-4
Nique Clifford	2	5	6	1-3	0-1
Daeqwon Plowden	11	2	1	4-9	2-6
Emanuel Sharp	8	2	1	3-9	1-4

Spurs
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Devin Vassell	13	5	3	5-11	2-7
De'Aaron Fox	14	6	5	5-9	2-4
Stephon Castle	23	5	3	8-13	2-3
Victor Wembanyama	20	12	2	5-10	2-3
Julian Champagnie	15	7	2	5-7	5-7
Dylan Harper	12	3	2	4-11	0-1
Keldon Johnson	12	1	2	4-8	0-1
Luke Kornet	8	6	0	4-4	0-0
Harrison Barnes	8	1	3	3-9	2-6

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
Out: Cardwell, K. Murray, Raynaud, Simmons · T. Harris, Quaintance.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

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