NBA Fri, Oct 23 Final

Knicks @ Celtics

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Typical	Real
NYK Knicks	112	103
BOS Celtics	115	107

NYK 43% of runs won 57% BOS

✓ The sim had it. The Celtics won 57% of the runs, and won the real game, BOS by 4.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · BOS by 3

Real · BOS by 4

← NYK by 30+ 0 BOS by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 6 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Jalen Brunson NYK

24 19

Karl-Anthony Towns NYK

17 22

OG Anunoby NYK

16 20

Mikal Bridges NYK

13 0

23 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Josh Hart NYK

11 10

Miles McBride NYK

8 20

209 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Landry Shamet NYK

8 8

Andre Drummond NYK

7 2

Jose Alvarado NYK

7 2

Jayson Tatum BOS

22 36

336 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Derrick White BOS

18 12

Payton Pritchard BOS

17 4

113 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Paul George BOS

17 15

Neemias Queta BOS

12 15

Sam Hauser BOS

8 6

Baylor Scheierman BOS

7 2

Mitchell Robinson BOS

7 4

Mike Conley BOS

6 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. NYK 112, BOS 115.

Knicks
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Jalen Brunson	24	2	4	6-22	2-7
OG Anunoby	24	5	0	9-11	3-5
Mikal Bridges	12	5	1	5-9	0-2
Josh Hart	9	8	5	4-8	1-2
Karl-Anthony Towns	18	4	6	6-10	1-3
Miles McBride	11	4	2	5-14	1-6
Landry Shamet	5	3	4	1-4	1-4
Andre Drummond	2	10	1	1-4	0-0
Jose Alvarado	7	4	2	3-5	1-3

Celtics
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Derrick White	14	4	5	5-13	2-6
Jayson Tatum	20	12	4	6-19	1-10
Payton Pritchard	31	8	2	10-16	4-7
Paul George	15	7	3	6-16	3-8
Neemias Queta	15	4	2	7-10	0-0
Sam Hauser	0	5	0	0-5	0-3
Baylor Scheierman	16	2	2	5-10	4-9
Mike Conley	0	4	5	0-4	0-3
Mitchell Robinson	4	11	1	2-3	0-0

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season so far, ESPN.
Out: Devin Carter.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

The typical game

What went in

Get the sims by email.