million_runs
← The record
NHL Tue, Oct 27 Final

Kings @ Blackhawks

Simulated 100,000 times

TeamTypicalReal
LAK Kings 4 1
CHI Blackhawks 3 2

✗ A miss. The Kings won 52% of the runs, but the Blackhawks won the real game, CHI by 1. CHI won by that much or more in 48% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · LAK by 1
Real · CHI by 1
← LAK by 6+ 0 CHI by 6+ →
Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Kings
Player GoalPointGA
Artemi Panarin 39%61%00
Adrian Kempe 35%63%00
Brandt Clarke 24%59%00
Alex Laferriere 21%66%00
Erik Haula 19%45%00
Quinton Byfield 17%29%00
Joel Edmundson 16%28%00
Drew Doughty 13%42%––
Brian Dumoulin 11%13%00
Erik Gustafsson 10%32%00
Mikey Anderson 9%22%00
Cody Ceci 7%19%00
Blackhawks
Player GoalPointGA
Roman Kantserov 28%30%10
Patrick Kane 24%66%01
Frank Nazar 23%34%01
Anton Frondell 22%61%00
Tyler Bertuzzi 19%48%00
Artyom Levshunov 19%41%00
Connor Bedard 17%47%01
Sam Rinzel 16%29%00
Teuvo Teravainen 15%46%01
Ian Cole 8%10%00
Wyatt Kaiser 8%42%10
Alex Vlasic 7%33%00

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 100,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. LAK 4, CHI 3.

Skaters

Kings
Player GAShots
Adrian Kempe 214
Scott Laughton 020
Joel Edmundson 106
Artemi Panarin 104
Alex Laferriere 013
Erik Gustafsson 012
Drew Doughty 011
Erik Haula 010
Cody Ceci 010
Blackhawks
Player GAShots
Patrick Kane 025
Anton Frondell 024
Tyler Bertuzzi 109
Connor Bedard 103
Roman Kantserov 103
Wyatt Kaiser 011
Alex Vlasic 010
Artyom Levshunov 004
Frank Nazar 003
Ryan Greene 003

Goalies

Kings
Player Shots againstSaves
Darcy Kuemper 4239
Blackhawks
Player Shots againstSaves
Spencer Knight 2824

What went in

  • Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Darcy Kuemper / Spencer Knight, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
  • Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
  • 100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

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