Lakers @ Jazz
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| LAL Lakers | 118 | 132 |
| UTA Jazz | 116 | 123 |
✓ The sim had it. The Lakers won 53% of the runs, and won the real game, LAL by 9.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · LAL by 2
Real · LAL by 9
← LAL by 30+ 0 UTA by 30+ →
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 5 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.
060 SimReal
Luka Doncic LAL
28 52
21 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Austin Reaves LAL
20 29
Walker Kessler LAL
13 2
77 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Quentin Grimes LAL
12 3
317 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Ziaire Williams LAL
10 11
Sandro Mamukelashvili LAL
10 9
Jake LaRavia LAL
9 0
132 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Collin Sexton LAL
9 13
Matisse Thybulle LAL
6 11
Lauri Markkanen UTA
21 28
Keyonte George UTA
18 24
Jaren Jackson Jr. UTA
17 20
Ace Bailey UTA
12 17
Brice Sensabaugh UTA
11 7
Isaiah Collier UTA
10 6
Svi Mykhailiuk UTA
8 2
Darryn Peterson UTA
8 8
Jaxson Hayes UTA
8 9
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. LAL 118, UTA 116.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 18 | 7 | 3 | 7-20 | 1-11 |
| Luka Doncic | 28 | 8 | 5 | 7-22 | 4-13 |
| Walker Kessler | 15 | 10 | 2 | 6-8 | 0-1 |
| Quentin Grimes | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Jake LaRavia | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Ziaire Williams | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Collin Sexton | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7-16 | 1-7 |
| Keyonte George | 15 | 6 | 10 | 5-10 | 2-2 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 19 | 6 | 1 | 8-9 | 1-1 |
| Ace Bailey | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4-13 | 0-5 |
| Isaiah Collier | 14 | 0 | 5 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Darryn Peterson | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 18 | 2 | 3 | 7-12 | 3-5 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team; 2024-25 too for anyone with under 20 games) + this season so far, ESPN.
- Out: Carr, Thiero · Nurkic, Alexander, Hinson.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
Get the sims by email.
Tonight’s games and how the last ones held up, misses included. Unsubscribe anytime.