Lakers @ Clippers
Simulated 10,000 times
↻ Re-run: no Luka. The re-run is the sim that was posted, and the one scored.
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| LAL Lakers | 117 | 103 |
| LAC Clippers | 108 | 87 |
✓ The sim had it. The Lakers won 70% of the runs, and won the real game, LAL by 16.
Wild card · 1 in 9 runs
Darius Garland: 35+ points
Didn’t hit. Real: 14 points.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 4 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.
774 of 10,000 runs went that low.
435 of 10,000 runs went that high.
394 of 10,000 runs went that low.
649 of 10,000 runs went that low.
477 of 10,000 runs went that low.
561 of 10,000 runs went that low.
143 of 10,000 runs went that low.
844 of 10,000 runs went that high.
461 of 10,000 runs went that low.
What a Lakers win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Lakers win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. LAL 117, LAC 108. Lakers by exactly 9 in 2.5% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves | 26 | 5 | 7 | 7-19 | 2-7 |
| Walker Kessler | 18 | 17 | 3 | 7-11 | 0-1 |
| Quentin Grimes | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 15 | 9 | 2 | 6-14 | 3-7 |
| Jake LaRavia | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Collin Sexton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-1 |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Jaden Hardy | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland | 26 | 3 | 9 | 9-24 | 5-13 |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 14 | 7 | 5 | 7-14 | 0-1 |
| Kris Dunn | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Keaton Wagler | 15 | 9 | 4 | 5-10 | 3-6 |
| Brook Lopez | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 12 | 5 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Sanders | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1-7 | 1-2 |
| Gradey Dick | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Jalen Pickett | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
What went in
- Without Luka, the other Lakers take his shots at their own rates; the sim can't see how much harder those shots get.
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Carr, Doncic, Thiero, Williams · Beal, Hachimura, Ingram, Miller, Niederhauser, Strus.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
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