NBA Thu, Oct 29 Final

Grizzlies @ Trail Blazers

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
MEM Grizzlies	114	124
POR Trail Blazers	113	103

MEM 50% of runs won 50% POR

✓ The sim had it. The Grizzlies won 50% of the runs, and won the real game, MEM by 21.

Wild card · 1 in 12 runs

Deni Avdija: 30+ points

Didn’t hit. Real: 24 points.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · MEM by 1

Real · MEM by 21

← MEM by 30+ 0 POR by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 7 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.

035 SimReal

Ty Jerome MEM

19 10

623 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Cedric Coward MEM

16 17

Jerami Grant MEM

16 2

26 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Jaylen Wells MEM

14 10

Cameron Boozer MEM

14 18

Javon Small MEM

10 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Zach Edey MEM

9 13

Cam Spencer MEM

9 8

Kris Murray MEM

6 0

514 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Deni Avdija POR

20 24

Damian Lillard POR

18 9

730 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Ja Morant POR

16 14

Jrue Holiday POR

14 6

652 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Toumani Camara POR

10 13

Donovan Clingan POR

10 11

Scoot Henderson POR

10 9

Robert Williams III POR

8 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Sidy Cissoko POR

6 4

What a Grizzlies win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Grizzlies win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. MEM 114, POR 113. Grizzlies by exactly 1 in 2.6% of runs.

Grizzlies
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Cedric Coward	16	6	1	6-14	3-5
Jaylen Wells	21	3	0	8-15	5-8
Ty Jerome	20	4	12	8-16	3-6
Jerami Grant	9	1	2	3-8	1-5
Cameron Boozer	13	9	3	3-10	2-5
Zach Edey	7	11	1	3-4	1-2
Kris Murray	8	2	1	4-5	0-1
Cam Spencer	9	1	1	3-10	1-4
Javon Small	11	4	5	4-6	1-1

Trail Blazers
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Damian Lillard	18	8	5	4-14	4-10
Deni Avdija	16	13	3	6-14	1-1
Toumani Camara	8	4	0	3-9	1-7
Ja Morant	15	4	4	6-10	0-2
Jrue Holiday	13	3	4	5-10	2-6
Donovan Clingan	12	9	2	5-7	0-1
Scoot Henderson	18	2	2	6-9	4-5
Sidy Cissoko	10	2	2	4-10	2-7
Robert Williams III	3	5	2	1-2	0-0

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
Out: none · Sharpe, Youngblood.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

What a Grizzlies win looks like

What went in

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