NBA Wed, Oct 28 Final

Heat @ Hawks

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
MIA Heat	117	129
ATL Hawks	114	117

MIA 56% of runs won 44% ATL

✓ The sim had it. The Heat won 56% of the runs, and won the real game, MIA by 12.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · MIA by 3

Real · MIA by 12

← MIA by 30+ 0 ATL by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 18 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA

25 24

Bam Adebayo MIA

16 24

Andrew Wiggins MIA

13 18

Pelle Larsson MIA

12 17

Davion Mitchell MIA

11 10

Bobby Portis MIA

11 11

Tim Hardaway Jr. MIA

9 14

Klay Thompson MIA

9 3

Nikola Jovic MIA

6 5

Jalen Johnson ATL

19 12

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL

18 23

CJ McCollum ATL

17 13

Onyeka Okongwu ATL

13 11

Dyson Daniels ATL

12 7

Aaron Wiggins ATL

9 10

Jock Landale ATL

8 10

Luguentz Dort ATL

7 8

Kingston Flemings ATL

6 23

2 of 10,000 runs went that high.

What a Heat win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Heat win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. MIA 117, ATL 114. Heat by exactly 3 in 2.5% of runs.

Heat
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Davion Mitchell	12	4	9	4-9	2-3
Bam Adebayo	13	10	3	4-13	2-8
Giannis Antetokounmpo	26	14	3	11-17	1-2
Pelle Larsson	17	4	1	6-8	3-4
Andrew Wiggins	13	7	1	5-13	1-4
Bobby Portis	5	4	1	2-4	1-2
Tim Hardaway Jr.	17	4	1	5-8	3-6
Klay Thompson	8	1	2	3-11	2-9
Nikola Jovic	6	6	3	2-7	2-3

Hawks
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Jalen Johnson	22	12	2	9-20	1-3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	20	1	3	7-15	3-6
Dyson Daniels	6	11	6	3-6	0-2
Onyeka Okongwu	14	9	3	5-13	0-5
CJ McCollum	15	5	4	5-12	2-3
Luguentz Dort	8	5	1	3-9	2-6
Aaron Wiggins	11	1	3	4-12	2-7
Jock Landale	12	3	1	5-8	1-2
Kingston Flemings	6	2	2	3-4	0-1

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
Out: Fontecchio · Gueye, Veesaar.
Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Wiggins.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

What a Heat win looks like

What went in

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