Wild @ Mammoth
Simulated 100,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| MIN Wild | 3 | 3 |
| UTA Mammoth | 4 | 1 |
✗ A miss. The Mammoth won 52% of the runs, but the Wild won the real game, MIN by 2. MIN won by that much or more in 29% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · UTA by 1
Real · MIN by 2
← MIN by 6+ 0 UTA by 6+ →
Player by player
The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 42% | 68% | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Boldy | 40% | 62% | 0 | 1 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 31% | 61% | 1 | 0 |
| Quinn Hughes | 28% | 73% | 0 | 2 |
| Blake Coleman | 24% | 31% | 0 | 0 |
| Danila Yurov | 19% | 27% | 0 | 0 |
| Michael McCarron | 18% | 47% | 0 | 0 |
| Maxim Shabanov | 15% | 45% | 1 | 0 |
| Jared Spurgeon | 11% | 38% | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Bogosian | 11% | 12% | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Brodin | 9% | 32% | 0 | 0 |
| Olli Maatta | 5% | 22% | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz | 32% | 56% | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Guenther | 31% | 52% | 0 | 0 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 27% | 66% | 0 | 1 |
| Clayton Keller | 25% | 65% | 0 | 0 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 21% | 33% | 0 | 0 |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 20% | 41% | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 19% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
| Lawson Crouse | 16% | 34% | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Cooley | 15% | 53% | 1 | 0 |
| Dmitri Simashev | 14% | 27% | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Schmidt | 12% | 26% | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Peeke | 11% | 30% | 0 | 0 |
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 100,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MIN 3, UTA 4.
Skaters
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Jonas Brodin | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Quinn Hughes | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Bobby Brink | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Hartman | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nico Sturm | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Blake Coleman | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Matt Boldy | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Barrett Hayton | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Vincent Trocheck | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Lawson Crouse | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Clayton Keller | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Guenther | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Goalies
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | 26 | 22 |
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | 26 | 23 |
What went in
- Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Jesper Wallstedt / Karel Vejmelka, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
- Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
- 100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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