NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Canadiens @ Stars

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real
MTL Canadiens	1	5
DAL Stars	4	2

MTL 42% of runs won 58% DAL

✗ A miss. The Stars won 58% of the runs, but the Canadiens won the real game, MTL by 3. MTL won by that much or more in 13% of runs.

Wild card · 1 in 10 runs

Stars by 4+

Didn’t hit. Real: MTL by 3.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · DAL by 3

Real · MTL by 3

← MTL by 6+ 0 DAL by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Canadiens
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Cole Caufield	35%	54%	2	0
Juraj Slafkovsky	25%	56%	0	1
Josh Anderson	22%	34%	0	0
Lane Hutson	22%	58%	0	1
Noah Dobson	17%	37%	0	2
Phillip Danault	12%	31%	1	1
Mike Matheson	11%	31%	–	–
Kaiden Guhle	10%	25%	0	0
Alex Newhook	10%	32%	2	0
Jake Evans	10%	18%	0	1
Alexandre Carrier	9%	35%	0	1
Chris Kreider	9%	32%	0	1

Stars
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Jason Robertson	37%	70%	0	0
Mikko Rantanen	30%	68%	0	2
Roope Hintz	28%	57%	0	0
Tyler Seguin	25%	44%	0	0
Wyatt Johnston	25%	60%	1	1
Miro Heiskanen	23%	55%	0	1
Thomas Harley	16%	49%	0	0
Justin Hryckowian	14%	16%	0	0
Sam Steel	11%	27%	0	0
Nils Lundkvist	7%	31%	0	0
Tyler Myers	5%	15%	0	0
Lian Bichsel	5%	15%	0	0

The sim’s call

The Stars’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. MTL 1, DAL 4. 4.5% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Canadiens
Player	G	A	Shots
Zack Bolduc	1	0	1
Phillip Danault	0	1	0
Noah Dobson	0	1	0
Cole Caufield	0	0	6
Alex Newhook	0	0	3
Juraj Slafkovsky	0	0	3

Stars
Player	G	A	Shots
Jason Robertson	1	2	5
Wyatt Johnston	1	2	4
Mikko Rantanen	1	1	3
Roope Hintz	1	0	2
Sam Steel	0	1	1
Miro Heiskanen	0	1	1
Jamie Benn	0	0	3

Goalies

Canadiens
Player	Shots against	Saves
Jacob Fowler	29	25

Stars
Player	Shots against	Saves
Jake Oettinger	25	24

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Jacob Fowler / Jake Oettinger, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.