Canadiens @ Blues
Simulated 100,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| MTL Canadiens | 3 | 2 |
| STL Blues | 4 | 0 |
✗ A miss. The Blues won 53% of the runs, but the Canadiens won the real game, MTL by 2. MTL won by that much or more in 28% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · STL by 1
Real · MTL by 2
← MTL by 6+ 0 STL by 6+ →
Player by player
The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 36% | 57% | 0 | 0 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 27% | 60% | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Anderson | 27% | 41% | 0 | 0 |
| Lane Hutson | 23% | 62% | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Dobson | 19% | 43% | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Danault | 15% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Evans | 13% | 24% | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 13% | 31% | 0 | 0 |
| Alexandre Carrier | 13% | 45% | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Matheson | 12% | 23% | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Newhook | 12% | 38% | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Kreider | 10% | 37% | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish | 34% | 53% | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 30% | 42% | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Holloway | 24% | 59% | 0 | 0 |
| Philip Broberg | 23% | 47% | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Neighbours | 21% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 18% | 43% | 0 | 0 |
| Connor McMichael | 17% | 48% | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Jiricek | 17% | 25% | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Barron | 14% | 41% | 0 | 0 |
| Colton Parayko | 14% | 41% | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Thomas | 13% | 46% | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Fowler | 11% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 100,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. MTL 3, STL 4.
Skaters
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Lane Hutson | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Phillip Danault | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Alex Newhook | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Chris Kreider | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kaiden Guhle | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oliver Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Colton Parayko | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Philip Broberg | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Cam Fowler | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dylan Holloway | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Robert Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Connor McMichael | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Goalies
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler | 32 | 28 |
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer | 35 | 32 |
What went in
- Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Jacob Fowler / Joel Hofer, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
- Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
- 100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
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