NHL Wed, Oct 28 Final

Devils @ Avalanche

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
NJ Devils	4	2
COL Avalanche	2	5

NJ 52% of runs won 48% COL

✗ A miss. The Devils won 52% of the runs, but the Avalanche won the real game, COL by 3. COL won by that much or more in 18% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · NJ by 2

Real · COL by 3

← NJ by 6+ 0 COL by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Devils
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Jack Hughes	37%	75%	0	0
Nico Hischier	32%	46%	0	0
Luke Hughes	31%	45%	0	0
Timo Meier	30%	52%	0	0
Arseny Gritsyuk	25%	49%	0	0
Luke Evangelista	24%	56%	0	0
Jesper Bratt	23%	69%	0	0
Dougie Hamilton	22%	52%	0	0
Evan Rodrigues	15%	37%	0	0
Brett Pesce	10%	37%	0	0
Johnathan Kovacevic	4%	13%	–	–
Jonas Siegenthaler	3%	20%	0	0

Avalanche
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Nathan MacKinnon	41%	74%	1	0
Artturi Lehkonen	28%	44%	0	1
Martin Necas	26%	61%	0	0
Cale Makar	25%	57%	0	0
Nazem Kadri	24%	53%	1	1
Brock Nelson	18%	40%	0	0
Devon Toews	17%	44%	0	1
Gabriel Landeskog	17%	32%	1	0
Brent Burns	10%	25%	0	2
Josh Manson	9%	24%	0	0
Sam Malinski	7%	23%	0	2
Brett Kulak	6%	27%	0	0

What a Devils win looks like

One real run out of the 100,000: a Devils win, with the final drawn as often as it came up in the runs. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. NJ 4, COL 2. 3.7% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Devils
Player	G	A	Shots
Arseny Gritsyuk	2	0	4
Jack Hughes	1	1	2
Cody Glass	1	0	6
Timo Meier	0	1	1
Jesper Bratt	0	1	0
Declan Chisholm	0	1	0
Jesper Boqvist	0	0	4

Avalanche
Player	G	A	Shots
Nathan MacKinnon	1	0	5
T.J. Hughes	1	0	4
Gabriel Landeskog	0	1	2
Cale Makar	0	1	2
Jaden Schwartz	0	1	1
Brock Nelson	0	1	0
Brent Burns	0	0	3
Nazem Kadri	0	0	3

Goalies

Devils
Player	Shots against	Saves
Jake Allen	25	23

Avalanche
Player	Shots against	Saves
Mackenzie Blackwood	28	24

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Jake Allen / Mackenzie Blackwood, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.