Nuggets @ Thunder
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| DEN Nuggets | 122 | 84 |
| OKC Thunder | 123 | 96 |
✓ The sim had it. The Thunder won 52% of the runs, and won the real game, OKC by 12.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · OKC by 1
Real · OKC by 12
← DEN by 30+ 0 OKC by 30+ →
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 5 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.
040 SimReal
Nikola Jokic DEN
23 13
561 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Jamal Murray DEN
21 6
87 of 10,000 runs went that low.
DeMar DeRozan DEN
15 13
Aaron Gordon DEN
13 20
Christian Braun DEN
12 7
Cameron Johnson DEN
11 5
Marvin Bagley III DEN
8 2
527 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Cam Whitmore DEN
8 DNP
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
Ryan Nembhard DEN
5 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
28 17
595 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Chet Holmgren OKC
17 12
Jalen Williams OKC
16 21
Ajay Mitchell OKC
14 12
Cason Wallace OKC
10 9
Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10 6
Alex Caruso OKC
9 7
Jaylin Williams OKC
7 3
Josh Dix OKC
7 DNP
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. DEN 122, OKC 123.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 23 | 5 | 3 | 10-16 | 1-3 |
| Nikola Jokic | 22 | 17 | 8 | 7-16 | 4-5 |
| Christian Braun | 15 | 10 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Cameron Johnson | 15 | 6 | 2 | 5-10 | 4-7 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2-12 | 0-3 |
| Aaron Gordon | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7-11 | 0-1 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Cam Whitmore | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 28 | 7 | 3 | 11-25 | 3-7 |
| Chet Holmgren | 14 | 8 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-1 |
| Jalen Williams | 14 | 6 | 3 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 18 | 0 | 1 | 8-16 | 0-0 |
| Cason Wallace | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 4 | 8 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Alex Caruso | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5-13 | 2-10 |
| Jaylin Williams | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 3-5 |
| Josh Dix | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season so far, ESPN.
- Out: Strawther · Oweh, Sorber, Topic. Spencer Jones (day-to-day) isn't in the rotation.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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