million_runs
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NBA Wed, Oct 28 Final

Knicks @ Bulls

Simulated 10,000 times

TeamGame shownReal
NYK Knicks 116 133
CHI Bulls 110 127

✓ The sim had it. The Knicks won 63% of the runs, and won the real game, NYK by 6.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · NYK by 6
Real · NYK by 6
← NYK by 30+ 0 CHI by 30+ →
Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 7 of 16 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal
Jalen Brunson NYK
24 38

414 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Karl-Anthony Towns NYK
19 19
OG Anunoby NYK
18 23
Mikal Bridges NYK
12 3

215 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Josh Hart NYK
12 2

192 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Landry Shamet NYK
9 14
Miles McBride NYK
8 3
Jose Alvarado NYK
6 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Andre Drummond NYK
6 4
Norman Powell CHI
19 30

631 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Caleb Wilson CHI
17 20
Josh Giddey CHI
14 10
Matas Buzelis CHI
14 17
Tre Jones CHI
10 11
Leonard Miller CHI
10 10
Jalen Smith CHI
9 17

881 of 10,000 runs went that high.

Isaac Okoro CHI
8 7
Patrick Williams CHI
7 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

What a Knicks win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Knicks win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. NYK 116, CHI 110. Knicks by exactly 6 in 2.4% of runs.

Knicks
Player PTSREBASTFG3PT
Jalen Brunson 21457-171-4
OG Anunoby 21518-142-5
Mikal Bridges 16406-121-3
Karl-Anthony Towns 221276-121-4
Josh Hart 91353-61-3
Landry Shamet 10413-61-3
Miles McBride 9303-81-5
Jose Alvarado 5132-51-4
Andre Drummond 3611-21-1
Bulls
Player PTSREBASTFG3PT
Josh Giddey 139103-113-6
Norman Powell 22548-164-8
Caleb Wilson 17816-140-3
Matas Buzelis 14516-92-3
Isaac Okoro 11305-91-4
Jalen Smith 11214-113-9
Tre Jones 5361-30-0
Leonard Miller 8334-70-2
Patrick Williams 9044-81-3

What went in

  • Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
  • Out: none · Claxton.
  • Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Alvarado, Williams.
  • 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

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