NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Islanders @ Wild

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real · OT
NYI Islanders	2	4
MIN Wild	4	3

NYI 41% of runs won 59% MIN

✗ A miss. The Wild won 59% of the runs, but the Islanders won the real game, NYI by 1. NYI won by that much or more in 41% of runs.

Wild card · 1 in 8 runs

Islanders by 3+

Didn’t hit. Real: NYI by 1.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · MIN by 2

Real · NYI by 1

← NYI by 6+ 0 MIN by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Islanders
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Bo Horvat	36%	66%	1	0
Matthew Schaefer	34%	70%	2	1
Brayden Schenn	24%	54%	0	0
Kyle Palmieri	23%	32%	0	0
Simon Holmstrom	21%	36%	0	1
Victor Eklund	17%	25%	0	1
Emil Heineman	15%	35%	0	1
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	11%	41%	0	1
Tony DeAngelo	11%	33%	0	0
Adam Pelech	9%	24%	1	0
Ryan Pulock	6%	15%	0	0
Logan Stanley	5%	38%	0	0

Wild
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Kirill Kaprizov	45%	73%	0	1
Matt Boldy	41%	67%	1	0
Joel Eriksson Ek	34%	64%	1	0
Quinn Hughes	30%	79%	1	1
Blake Coleman	23%	30%	0	0
Maxim Shabanov	17%	49%	0	0
Danila Yurov	17%	24%	0	0
Michael McCarron	16%	42%	0	0
Ryan Hartman	11%	25%	0	1
Zach Bogosian	9%	10%	0	0
Jonas Brodin	8%	29%	0	1
Olli Maatta	4%	19%	0	0

The sim’s call

The Wild’s most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. NYI 2, MIN 4. 4.3% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Islanders
Player	G	A	Shots
Tony DeAngelo	0	2	1
Brayden Schenn	1	0	5
Bo Horvat	1	0	5
Matthew Schaefer	0	1	3
Logan Stanley	0	1	1
Kyle Palmieri	0	0	3

Wild
Player	G	A	Shots
Matt Boldy	1	2	5
Kirill Kaprizov	1	0	9
Blake Coleman	1	0	1
Maxim Shabanov	1	0	1
Ryan Hartman	0	1	2
Joel Eriksson Ek	0	1	1
Bobby Brink	0	1	1
Quinn Hughes	0	0	3

Goalies

Islanders
Player	Shots against	Saves
Ilya Sorokin	29	25

Wild
Player	Shots against	Saves
Jesper Wallstedt	25	23

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Ilya Sorokin / Jesper Wallstedt, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.