Islanders @ Predators
Simulated 100,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real · SO |
|---|---|---|
| NYI Islanders | 3 | 4 |
| NSH Predators | 4 | 3 |
✗ A miss. The Predators won 53% of the runs, but the Islanders won the real game, NYI by 1. NYI won by that much or more in 47% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · NSH by 1
Real · NYI by 1
← NYI by 6+ 0 NSH by 6+ →
Player by player
The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 35% | 67% | 1 | 0 |
| Matthew Schaefer | 35% | 69% | 0 | 1 |
| Brayden Schenn | 24% | 55% | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Palmieri | 23% | 32% | 0 | 0 |
| Simon Holmstrom | 22% | 31% | 0 | 1 |
| Victor Eklund | 19% | 29% | 0 | 0 |
| Emil Heineman | 17% | 41% | 0 | 0 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 14% | 46% | 0 | 1 |
| Tony DeAngelo | 13% | 32% | 0 | 1 |
| Adam Pelech | 11% | 31% | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Stanley | 7% | 48% | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Pulock | 6% | 19% | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly | 31% | 60% | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Stamkos | 31% | 63% | 0 | 1 |
| Filip Forsberg | 26% | 66% | 1 | 1 |
| Roman Josi | 24% | 71% | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 21% | 36% | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Drury | 16% | 25% | 0 | 0 |
| Brady Skjei | 12% | 36% | 0 | 0 |
| Mavrik Bourque | 12% | 28% | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Wilsby | 12% | 46% | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 11% | 35% | 1 | 0 |
| Nicolas Hague | 9% | 20% | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Perbix | 6% | 8% | 0 | 0 |
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 100,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. NYI 3, NSH 4.
Skaters
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Brayden Schenn | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Tony DeAngelo | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Matthew Schaefer | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Adam Pelech | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Logan Stanley | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Emil Heineman | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Palmieri | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Bo Horvat | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Anthony Duclair | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Roman Josi | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Filip Forsberg | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Brady Skjei | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nicolas Hague | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Goalies
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | 32 | 28 |
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | 35 | 32 |
What went in
- Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Ilya Sorokin / Juuse Saros, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
- Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
- 100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
@million_runs on TikTokThe list
Get the sims by email.
Tonight’s games and how the last ones held up, misses included. Unsubscribe anytime.