Thunder @ Mavericks
Simulated 10,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| OKC Thunder | 123 | 96 |
| DAL Mavericks | 115 | 120 |
✗ A miss. The Thunder won 69% of the runs, but the Mavericks won the real game, DAL by 24. DAL won by that much or more in 2.9% of runs.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 8 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.
992 of 10,000 runs went that low.
875 of 10,000 runs went that high.
664 of 10,000 runs went that low.
610 of 10,000 runs went that low.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
630 of 10,000 runs went that low.
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. OKC 123, DAL 115.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14-23 | 0-1 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6-15 | 1-5 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 15 | 14 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Jared McCain | 15 | 4 | 2 | 6-20 | 3-12 |
| Josh Dix | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Aday Mara | 12 | 7 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Williams | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-4 |
| Kenrich Williams | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 18 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
| Cooper Flagg | 18 | 7 | 6 | 7-12 | 0-4 |
| Kyrie Irving | 24 | 5 | 6 | 11-20 | 2-6 |
| Max Christie | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Naji Marshall | 9 | 7 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-2 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Daniel Gafford | 10 | 9 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Sasser | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-2 |
What went in
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Caruso, Holmgren, Oweh, Sorber, Topic, Wallace +1 · Aldama, Biberovic, Larrea, Lively, Martin.
- Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Mitchell, Irving, Marshall.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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