NBA Wed, Oct 28 Final

Magic @ Raptors

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
ORL Magic	113	99
TOR Raptors	117	129

ORL 41% of runs won 59% TOR

✓ The sim had it. The Raptors won 59% of the runs, and won the real game, TOR by 30.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · TOR by 4

Real · TOR by 30

← ORL by 30+ 0 TOR by 30+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 5 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.

040 SimReal

Franz Wagner ORL

22 15

Desmond Bane ORL

21 13

Wendell Carter Jr. ORL

14 3

86 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Tristan da Silva ORL

13 20

Anthony Black ORL

12 8

Nikola Vucevic ORL

10 5

Jevon Carter ORL

6 6

Jamal Cain ORL

6 9

Jase Richardson ORL

6 10

RJ Barrett TOR

23 25

Scottie Barnes TOR

20 28

Immanuel Quickley TOR

17 16

Jakob Poeltl TOR

11 2

153 of 10,000 runs went that low.

Ja'Kobe Walter TOR

10 14

Collin Murray-Boyles TOR

10 10

Malachi Smith TOR

9 DNP

Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.

Allen Graves TOR

8 3

Jamal Shead TOR

7 13

What a Raptors win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a Raptors win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. ORL 113, TOR 117. Raptors by exactly 4 in 2.5% of runs.

Magic
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Desmond Bane	23	8	2	10-17	1-5
Franz Wagner	22	5	1	5-14	1-3
Wendell Carter Jr.	14	13	4	5-10	2-5
Tristan da Silva	8	5	2	3-10	1-5
Anthony Black	17	0	4	6-15	4-6
Nikola Vucevic	17	6	5	6-11	2-4
Jevon Carter	3	2	4	1-3	1-2
Jamal Cain	6	8	0	2-5	2-3
Jase Richardson	3	1	3	1-2	0-0

Raptors
Player	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT
Scottie Barnes	20	12	7	7-17	1-5
RJ Barrett	20	7	5	7-13	1-4
Immanuel Quickley	9	2	5	4-9	1-4
Jakob Poeltl	18	5	2	8-9	0-0
Ja'Kobe Walter	12	4	3	5-10	2-5
Jamal Shead	5	1	3	2-8	0-4
Collin Murray-Boyles	16	4	0	5-7	0-0
Malachi Smith	6	3	3	3-6	0-2
Allen Graves	11	2	0	4-6	2-3

What went in

Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
Out: Banchero, Isaac, Nelson, Penda, Suggs · Bittle, Leonard.
Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Black.
10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok

Every run’s final margin

Player by player

What a Raptors win looks like

What went in

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