NHL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Senators @ Kings

Simulated 100,000 times

Team	The sim’s call	Real · OT
OTT Senators	4	5
LAK Kings	2	6

OTT 51% of runs won 49% LAK

✗ A miss. The Senators won 51% of the runs, but the Kings won the real game, LAK by 1. LAK won by that much or more in 49% of runs.

Wild card · 1 in 24 runs

Jonas Johansson: shutout

Didn’t hit. Real: OTT 5, LAK 6.

Every run’s final margin

The sim’s call · OTT by 2

Real · LAK by 1

← OTT by 6+ 0 LAK by 6+ →

Final margin in each of 100,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.

Senators
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Drake Batherson	35%	63%	1	2
Tim Stutzle	34%	68%	0	3
Dylan Cozens	25%	50%	2	1
Shane Pinto	24%	52%	1	0
Claude Giroux	18%	54%	0	0
Carter Yakemchuk	18%	34%	–	–
Michael Amadio	15%	33%	0	0
Ridly Greig	13%	28%	0	0
Tyler Kleven	13%	21%	1	0
Jake Sanderson	12%	41%	0	1
Jordan Spence	11%	26%	0	0
Artem Zub	4%	19%	0	0

Kings
Player	Goal	Point	G	A
Artemi Panarin	40%	63%	1	1
Adrian Kempe	35%	65%	0	0
Brandt Clarke	25%	59%	0	1
Alex Laferriere	24%	67%	0	0
Quinton Byfield	23%	34%	1	1
Trevor Moore	18%	35%	1	0
Joel Edmundson	13%	23%	0	0
Drew Doughty	11%	38%	0	3
Brian Dumoulin	9%	11%	0	1
Erik Gustafsson	9%	30%	0	0
Mikey Anderson	7%	18%	1	0
Cody Ceci	5%	16%	–	–

The sim’s call

The Senators’ most common winning score across all 100,000 runs, played out by one of them. The single likeliest final is still only a small share of runs. OTT 4, LAK 2. 3.6% of runs ended exactly that way.

Skaters

Senators
Player	G	A	Shots
Drake Batherson	1	2	6
Claude Giroux	0	2	2
Stephen Halliday	1	0	4
Tim Stutzle	1	0	3
Artem Zub	1	0	2
Shane Pinto	0	1	1
Fabian Zetterlund	0	1	1
Jordan Spence	0	1	0
Nikolas Matinpalo	0	1	0
Dylan Cozens	0	0	3

Kings
Player	G	A	Shots
Adrian Kempe	0	2	3
Artemi Panarin	1	0	7
Brandt Clarke	1	0	4
Quinton Byfield	0	1	3
Joel Armia	0	1	1

Goalies

Senators
Player	Shots against	Saves
Jonas Johansson	28	26

Kings
Player	Shots against	Saves
Darcy Kuemper	28	24

What went in

Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Jonas Johansson / Darcy Kuemper, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.