Senators @ Golden Knights
Simulated 100,000 times
| Team | Typical | Real |
|---|---|---|
| OTT Senators | 3 | 1 |
| VGK Golden Knights | 4 | 4 |
✓ The sim had it. The Golden Knights won 59% of the runs, and won the real game, VGK by 3.
Every run’s final margin
Typical · VGK by 1
Real · VGK by 3
← OTT by 6+ 0 VGK by 6+ →
Player by player
The share of all 100,000 runs in which each player scored a goal, and had at least a point. G and A: what they really did.
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson | 32% | 55% | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Stutzle | 31% | 63% | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cozens | 23% | 45% | 0 | 0 |
| Shane Pinto | 21% | 49% | 1 | 0 |
| Claude Giroux | 17% | 51% | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | 17% | 31% | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Amadio | 16% | 37% | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kleven | 15% | 24% | 0 | 0 |
| Ridly Greig | 14% | 29% | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Spence | 14% | 29% | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Sanderson | 9% | 37% | 0 | 0 |
| Artem Zub | 3% | 20% | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Goal | Point | G | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 32% | 72% | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Stone | 29% | 58% | 0 | 1 |
| Tomas Hertl | 28% | 43% | 0 | 0 |
| Shea Theodore | 24% | 36% | 0 | 1 |
| Brett Howden | 23% | 40% | 0 | 0 |
| Mitch Marner | 22% | 63% | 0 | 1 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 20% | 38% | 0 | 0 |
| William Karlsson | 19% | 37% | 1 | 0 |
| Noah Hanifin | 15% | 34% | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 14% | 54% | 0 | 1 |
| Brayden McNabb | 12% | 50% | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 12% | 13% | 0 | 0 |
The typical game
Not an average: one real run out of the 100,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. OTT 3, VGK 4.
Skaters
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Yakemchuk | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Tim Stutzle | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jordan Spence | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Shane Pinto | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Claude Giroux | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Stephen Halliday | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Cozens | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jake Sanderson | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | G | A | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jack Eichel | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brayden McNabb | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| William Karlsson | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Brett Howden | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Coghlan | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitch Marner | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Braeden Bowman | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Stone | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Tomas Hertl | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Marc Gatcomb | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Goalies
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson | 26 | 22 |
| Player | Shots against | Saves |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | 24 | 21 |
What went in
- Shots each team takes vs. what tonight's opponent allows; finishing vs. tonight's goalies (Samuel Ersson / Carter Hart, projected); power plays at real rates. ESPN, 2026-27.
- Tested on last season (Feb–Apr 2026, 449 games it never saw): 58% of winners.
- 100,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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