million_runs
← The record
NFL Sun, Oct 25 Final

Packers @ Lions

Simulated 1,000,000 times

TeamTypicalReal
GB Packers 27 17
DET Lions 26 20

✗ A miss. The Packers won 53% of the runs, but the Lions won the real game, DET by 3. DET won by that much or more in 43% of runs.

Every run’s final margin

Typical · GB by 1
Real · DET by 3
← GB by 35+ 0 DET by 35+ →
Final margin in each of 1,000,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal
Jordan Love GB
282 274
Jared Goff DET
258 303

Rushing yards

0200 SimReal
MarShawn Lloyd GB
36 20
Kaleb Johnson GB
22 0
Pierre Strong Jr. GB
10 0
Jahmyr Gibbs DET
99 116
Sione Vaki DET
9 5

Receiving yards

0200 SimReal
Matthew Golden GB
80 39
Christian Watson GB
64 57
Tucker Kraft GB
52 48
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET
75 153

About 5.5% of runs went that high.

Sam LaPorta DET
45 18
Jameson Williams DET
36 91

About 7.1% of runs went that high.

Isaac TeSlaa DET
22 10

The typical game

Not an average: one real run out of the 1,000,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them. GB 27, DET 26.

Packers
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Jordan Love QB 19/37 · 2803 · 181
Matthew Golden WR 7 · 89
Christian Watson WR 4 · 53
Bo Melton WR 2 · 52
Mark Redman TE 1 · 37
MarShawn Lloyd RB 7 · 271
Tucker Kraft TE 3 · 26
Savion Williams WR 2 · 231
Kaleb Johnson RB 5 · 21
Pierre Strong Jr. RB 2 · 181
Lions
Player PASSRUSHRECTD
Jared Goff QB 24/38 · 2582 · 242
Jahmyr Gibbs RB 21 · 1003 · 59
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 8 · 68
Sam LaPorta TE 6 · 521
Isaac TeSlaa WR 3 · 35
Jameson Williams WR 3 · 25
Brock Wright TE 1 · 19
Sione Vaki RB 6 · 15

What went in

  • Plays: every snap both teams (and their opponents) have run in 2026, ESPN play-by-play.
  • Out: Luke Musgrave · none listed. Injury report as of Sunday morning.
  • 1,000,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok