NFL Thu, Oct 29 Final

Panthers @ Packers

Simulated 10,000 times

Team	Game shown	Real
CAR Panthers	21	19
GB Packers	24	27

CAR 46% of runs won 54% GB

✓ The sim had it. The Packers won 54% of the runs, and won the real game, GB by 8.

Wild card · 1 in 8 runs

Packers score 35+

Didn’t hit. Real: Packers scored 27.

Every run’s final margin

Game shown · GB by 3

Real · GB by 8

← CAR by 35+ 0 GB by 35+ →

Final margin in each of 10,000 runs. Taller bar, more runs ended that way.

Player by player

The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened.

Passing yards

0400 SimReal

Bryce Young CAR

255 209

Jordan Love GB

267 288

Rushing yards

0150 SimReal

Chuba Hubbard CAR

74 81

AJ Dillon CAR

10 0

Josh Jacobs GB

58 39

MarShawn Lloyd GB

14 7

Kaleb Johnson GB

7 0

Receiving yards

0150 SimReal

Tetairoa McMillan CAR

66 58

Jalen Coker CAR

45 36

Darren Waller CAR

23 11

Tommy Tremble CAR

22 19

Matthew Golden GB

76 79

Christian Watson GB

56 113

Tucker Kraft GB

46 53

Bo Melton GB

6 0

What a Packers win looks like

One real run out of the 10,000: a Packers win, with the final drawn as often as it came up in the runs. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. CAR 21, GB 24. Packers by exactly 3 in 5.9% of runs.

Panthers
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Bryce Young QB	23/29 · 256
Kenny Pickett QB		2 · 6
Chuba Hubbard RB		22 · 78	2 · 32	1
Tetairoa McMillan WR			7 · 79
Brycen Tremayne WR			2 · 33
Mitchell Evans TE			2 · 32
Trevor Etienne RB		4 · 32		1
Jalen Coker WR			3 · 28
David Moore WR			1 · 22
Tommy Tremble TE			3 · 16
Darren Waller TE			2 · 11
AJ Dillon RB		2 · 7		1
John Metchie III WR			1 · 3

Packers
Player	PASS	RUSH	REC	TD
Jordan Love QB	19/37 · 255	3 · 16		1
Matthew Golden WR			6 · 76
Josh Jacobs RB		11 · 55	1 · 16	1
Christian Watson WR			4 · 64	1
Kaleb Johnson RB		3 · 42	2 · 12
Savion Williams WR			1 · 32
MarShawn Lloyd RB		3 · 20	2 · 10
Tucker Kraft TE			1 · 22
Pierre Strong Jr. RB		1 · 3	1 · 15	1
Jonnu Smith TE			1 · 8

What went in

v2 offenses, graded against the defenses they've faced. NFL record: 6–6. Out: Phillips, Ekwonu · Parsons, Franklin.
Jacobs as the lead back (one game this season). 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.

The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.

@million_runs on TikTok