76ers @ Pacers
Simulated 10,000 times
↻ Re-run: no Haliburton. The re-run is the sim that was posted, and the one scored.
| Team | Game shown | Real |
|---|---|---|
| PHI 76ers | 106 | 114 |
| IND Pacers | 105 | 109 |
✓ The sim had it. The 76ers won 51% of the runs, and won the real game, PHI by 5.
Wild card · 1 in 12 runs
Tyrese Maxey: 30+ points
Didn’t hit. Real: 27 points.
Every run’s final margin
Player by player
The bar is the middle 80% of runs, the yellow tick the median, the dot what really happened. 6 of 17 landed within 3 points of the sim.
146 of 10,000 runs went that high.
Didn’t play. The sim had them playing.
976 of 10,000 runs went that low.
893 of 10,000 runs went that low.
What a 76ers win looks like
One real run out of the 10,000, the one closest to the middle of all of them: a 76ers win. An example of how it could go, not a predicted score. PHI 106, IND 105. 76ers by exactly 1 in 2.5% of runs.
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 24 | 2 | 4 | 9-22 | 4-9 |
| Jaylen Brown | 21 | 8 | 2 | 7-15 | 1-3 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Joel Embiid | 17 | 11 | 1 | 7-16 | 0-3 |
| LeBron James | 15 | 11 | 6 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Dean Wade | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Anfernee Simons | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-4 |
| Rayan Rupert | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 25 | 6 | 3 | 11-20 | 1-3 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 20 | 4 | 7 | 7-9 | 2-4 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2-12 | 2-6 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5-15 | 0-5 |
| Jarace Walker | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3-5 | 3-3 |
| Obi Toppin | 13 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Jay Huff | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Quenton Jackson | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Jalen Slawson | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
What went in
- Without Haliburton, the other Pacers take his shots at their own rates; the sim can't see how much harder those shots get.
- Players: 2025-26 play-by-play (any team) + this season, ESPN; each shot adjusted for tonight's defense.
- Out: Barlow, Fall, Hukporti, Walker · Haliburton, McConnell, Sheppard, Zubac.
- Day-to-day, simulated as playing: Toppin.
- 10,000 runs, seed 2101. Simulated, not a prediction.
The video and the scorecard are on TikTok.
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